Who drew this connection in August / October 2021? I haven’t found anything but would love to update on these people’s current analysis of events.
Notably, in August 2021 the US, without a great deal of preparation and at great political cost, pulled out of Afghanistan.
Motivation: in the event of a Ukraine-Russia war, the US would be diplomatically embarassed if Russia could point to an ongoing war in Afghanistan as “equivalent” to their invasion. In addition, a war in Afghanistan would serve as a distraction to US armed forces.
Counterpoints: The US had signalled before that they intended to pull out at this date, in the previous administration’s negotiations with the Taliban. Also, Russia could just claim that their invasion was equivalent to the US’s past invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, even if they were ended.
Who drew this connection in August / October 2021? I haven’t found anything but would love to update on these people’s current analysis of events.
Notably, in August 2021 the US, without a great deal of preparation and at great political cost, pulled out of Afghanistan.
Motivation: in the event of a Ukraine-Russia war, the US would be diplomatically embarassed if Russia could point to an ongoing war in Afghanistan as “equivalent” to their invasion. In addition, a war in Afghanistan would serve as a distraction to US armed forces.
Counterpoints: The US had signalled before that they intended to pull out at this date, in the previous administration’s negotiations with the Taliban. Also, Russia could just claim that their invasion was equivalent to the US’s past invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, even if they were ended.