I’m curious, Jason, what the best arguments you have found so far about the relationship between long-term trends in population growth and progress.
Very briefly: In some of the growth models in which “ideas get harder to find” over time, the only thing that can sustain economic growth is an increasing population of researchers, and ultimately that requires an increasing human population. In fact, in some models the long-term growth rate of the economy is the population growth rate. From that standpoint, the world population growth slowdown is concerning. However, it’s conceivable that some technology, such as AI, could make researchers vastly more productive, allowing growth to continue faster than population.
Very briefly: In some of the growth models in which “ideas get harder to find” over time, the only thing that can sustain economic growth is an increasing population of researchers, and ultimately that requires an increasing human population. In fact, in some models the long-term growth rate of the economy is the population growth rate. From that standpoint, the world population growth slowdown is concerning. However, it’s conceivable that some technology, such as AI, could make researchers vastly more productive, allowing growth to continue faster than population.