If there’s a highly salient fact in play that Bahry neither knows nor can reasonably be expected to consider, which is certainly a strong possibility, then Bahry’s beliefs about the situation stop being credible evidence about much of anything, and I should not be treating them that way.
I’m falling into the trap of assuming that everybody else already knows what I know.
Huh.
When you put it that way, it seems plausible.
In fact… you’re right, and I’m wrong.
If there’s a highly salient fact in play that Bahry neither knows nor can reasonably be expected to consider, which is certainly a strong possibility, then Bahry’s beliefs about the situation stop being credible evidence about much of anything, and I should not be treating them that way.
I’m falling into the trap of assuming that everybody else already knows what I know.
I hereby repudiate my earlier speculations.
Thank you.