Maybe we can. This is how the Montreal Protocol came about: scientists discovered that chlorofluorocarbons were bad for the ozone. Governments believed them, then the Montreal Protocol was signed, and CFC use fell by 99.7%, leading to the stabilization of the ozone layer, perhaps the greatest example of global cooperation in history.
It took around 15 years from the time scientists discovered that chlorofluorocarbons were causing a major problem to the time the Montreal Protocol was adopted.
How can scientists convince the world to cooperate on AGI alignment in less time?
They haven’t managed to do it so far for climate change, which has received massively more attention than AGI. I have seen many times this example being used to argue that we can indeed be successful at coordinating for major challenges, but I think this case is misleading: CFC never played a major role in the economy and they were easily replaceable, so forbidding them was not such an important move.
#4. Can’t cooperate to avoid AGI
Maybe we can. This is how the Montreal Protocol came about: scientists discovered that chlorofluorocarbons were bad for the ozone. Governments believed them, then the Montreal Protocol was signed, and CFC use fell by 99.7%, leading to the stabilization of the ozone layer, perhaps the greatest example of global cooperation in history.
It took around 15 years from the time scientists discovered that chlorofluorocarbons were causing a major problem to the time the Montreal Protocol was adopted.
How can scientists convince the world to cooperate on AGI alignment in less time?
They haven’t managed to do it so far for climate change, which has received massively more attention than AGI. I have seen many times this example being used to argue that we can indeed be successful at coordinating for major challenges, but I think this case is misleading: CFC never played a major role in the economy and they were easily replaceable, so forbidding them was not such an important move.