I don’t think the primary decision makers at Nvidia do believe AGI is likely to be developed soon. I think they are hyping AI because it makes them money, but not really believing that progress will continue all the way to AGI in the near future. Also, it’s not always as easy as throwing money at the problem (acquihiring being the neologism these days). Those who are experts on a team that they already believe is the winning team would be really hard to convince to switch teams.
As for the company using the model to fundraise… Yeah, I think Google Deepmind is not likely to keep an extra powerful model secret for very long. Anthropic might. But also, you can give private demos to key investors under NDA if you want to impress them.
I do wonder if, in the future, AI companies will try to deliberately impair the AI research capabilities of their public models. I don’t expect it is happening yet. It would be a hard call to make, looking less competent in order to not share the advantage with competitors.
It feels hard to predict the details of how this all might play out!
I don’t think the primary decision makers at Nvidia do believe AGI is likely to be developed soon. I think they are hyping AI because it makes them money, but not really believing that progress will continue all the way to AGI in the near future.
I agree—and if they are at all rational they have expended significant resources to find out whether this belief is justified or not, and I’d take that seriously. If Nvidia do not believe that AGI is likely to be developed soon, I think they are probably right—and this makes more sense if there in fact aren’t any 5-level models around and scaling really has slowed down.
If I were in charge of Nvidia, I’d supply everybody until some design shows up that I believe will scale to AGI, and then I’d make sure to be the one who’s got the biggest training cluster. But since that’s not what’s happening yet, that’s evidence that Nvidia do not believe that the current paradigms are sufficiently capable.
I don’t think the primary decision makers at Nvidia do believe AGI is likely to be developed soon. I think they are hyping AI because it makes them money, but not really believing that progress will continue all the way to AGI in the near future. Also, it’s not always as easy as throwing money at the problem (acquihiring being the neologism these days). Those who are experts on a team that they already believe is the winning team would be really hard to convince to switch teams.
As for the company using the model to fundraise… Yeah, I think Google Deepmind is not likely to keep an extra powerful model secret for very long. Anthropic might. But also, you can give private demos to key investors under NDA if you want to impress them.
I do wonder if, in the future, AI companies will try to deliberately impair the AI research capabilities of their public models. I don’t expect it is happening yet. It would be a hard call to make, looking less competent in order to not share the advantage with competitors.
It feels hard to predict the details of how this all might play out!
I agree—and if they are at all rational they have expended significant resources to find out whether this belief is justified or not, and I’d take that seriously. If Nvidia do not believe that AGI is likely to be developed soon, I think they are probably right—and this makes more sense if there in fact aren’t any 5-level models around and scaling really has slowed down.
If I were in charge of Nvidia, I’d supply everybody until some design shows up that I believe will scale to AGI, and then I’d make sure to be the one who’s got the biggest training cluster. But since that’s not what’s happening yet, that’s evidence that Nvidia do not believe that the current paradigms are sufficiently capable.