Third, separate disagreement: This list states that “vastly more is at stake in [existential risks] than in anything else going on”. This seems to reflect a model in which “everything else going on” — including power struggles whose overt stakes are much much lower — does not substantially or predictably causally impact outcomes of existential risk questions. I think I disagree with that model, though my confidence in this is far, far less than for the other two disagreements I’ve posted.
Third, separate disagreement: This list states that “vastly more is at stake in [existential risks] than in anything else going on”. This seems to reflect a model in which “everything else going on” — including power struggles whose overt stakes are much much lower — does not substantially or predictably causally impact outcomes of existential risk questions. I think I disagree with that model, though my confidence in this is far, far less than for the other two disagreements I’ve posted.