Only one of these probabilities corresponds to what you’d see if you opened the other two boxes a bunch of times. What sort of actual expectation does the other one control?
My second issue is that “SIA” and “SSA” are not magic wands. They are tools derived from more fundamental considerations that have limited ranges of applicability. And these fundamental considerations are not all that complicated (I’m preparing a post on the topic) - talking about them is a much better and non-opaque way to deal with these problems.
Problem numero tres: This result only holds for big systems if your total expected frequency of life → 0, not just the density per cell. So doesn’t work well for the universe
Only one of these probabilities corresponds to what you’d see if you opened the other two boxes a bunch of times. What sort of actual expectation does the other one control?
My second issue is that “SIA” and “SSA” are not magic wands. They are tools derived from more fundamental considerations that have limited ranges of applicability. And these fundamental considerations are not all that complicated (I’m preparing a post on the topic) - talking about them is a much better and non-opaque way to deal with these problems.
Problem numero tres: This result only holds for big systems if your total expected frequency of life → 0, not just the density per cell. So doesn’t work well for the universe