Here is a specific proposal about the role of sexiness, ie, newness. I don’t mean to put a lot of weight on this hypothesis as opposed to the general class, but it is useful to spell out details. Also, I’m not sure what you’re saying and I suspect this is about a somewhat different irrationality than you were proposing.
Perhaps governments will not allow drug companies to profit in cash from selling vaccines. But they can still profit in intangible experience. This is most obvious with Moderna and BioNTech, whose existence is predicated on mRNA vaccines working in general and the companies being able to make them in particular. After this is over, they may not have any more net cash, but they will find it easier to raise money and convince regulators, not to mention that they will be more competent. Similarly, AZ and J&J will learn about vector vaccines.
I think a vaccine strategy that would have resulted in enough vaccines to vaccinate everyone at the end of 2020 would have been benefitial to a vaccine strategy that helps Moderna and BioNTech gather more experience with their technology platforms.
I’m not arguing that giving Moderna experience with their technology platform isn’t useful but it’s not worth the delay in vaccination over using technology that can be more easily scalled up.
Here is a specific proposal about the role of sexiness, ie, newness. I don’t mean to put a lot of weight on this hypothesis as opposed to the general class, but it is useful to spell out details. Also, I’m not sure what you’re saying and I suspect this is about a somewhat different irrationality than you were proposing.
Perhaps governments will not allow drug companies to profit in cash from selling vaccines. But they can still profit in intangible experience. This is most obvious with Moderna and BioNTech, whose existence is predicated on mRNA vaccines working in general and the companies being able to make them in particular. After this is over, they may not have any more net cash, but they will find it easier to raise money and convince regulators, not to mention that they will be more competent. Similarly, AZ and J&J will learn about vector vaccines.
I think a vaccine strategy that would have resulted in enough vaccines to vaccinate everyone at the end of 2020 would have been benefitial to a vaccine strategy that helps Moderna and BioNTech gather more experience with their technology platforms.
I’m not arguing that giving Moderna experience with their technology platform isn’t useful but it’s not worth the delay in vaccination over using technology that can be more easily scalled up.