How hard do you think abiogenesis looks? However much larger than our light-pocket the Universe is, counting many worlds, that’s the width of the range of difficulty it has to be in to account for the Fermi paradox. AIUI that’s a very wide, possibly infinite range, and it doesn’t seem at all implausible to me that it’s in that range. You have a model which would be slightly surprised by finding it that unlikely?
How hard do you think abiogenesis looks? However much larger than our light-pocket the Universe is, counting many worlds, that’s the width of the range of difficulty it has to be in to account for the Fermi paradox. AIUI that’s a very wide, possibly infinite range, and it doesn’t seem at all implausible to me that it’s in that range. You have a model which would be slightly surprised by finding it that unlikely?