I think the difficulty with answering this question is that many of the disagreements boil down to differences in estimates for how long it will take to operationalize lab-grade capabilities. Say we have intelligences that are narrowly human / superhuman on every task you can think of (which, for what it’s worth, I think will happen within 5-10 years). How long before we have self-replicating factories? Until foom? Until things are dangerously out of our control? Until GDP doubles within one year? In what order do these things happen? Etc. etc.
If I got anything out of the thousands of words of debate on the site in the last couple of months, it’s the answers to these questions that folks seem to disagree about (though I think I only actually have a good sense of Paul’s answers to these). Also curious to see more specific answers / timelines.
I think the difficulty with answering this question is that many of the disagreements boil down to differences in estimates for how long it will take to operationalize lab-grade capabilities.
The same point was made on the Effective Altruism Forum and it’s a considerable one. Yet I expected that.
The problem frustrating me is that the relative number of individuals who have volunteered their own numbers is so low it’s an insignificant minority. One person doesn’t disagree with their own self unless there is model uncertainty or whatever. Unless individual posts or comments among all of that debate provide specific answers or timelines, not enough people are providing helpful, quantitative information that would take trivial effort to provide.
I think the difficulty with answering this question is that many of the disagreements boil down to differences in estimates for how long it will take to operationalize lab-grade capabilities. Say we have intelligences that are narrowly human / superhuman on every task you can think of (which, for what it’s worth, I think will happen within 5-10 years). How long before we have self-replicating factories? Until foom? Until things are dangerously out of our control? Until GDP doubles within one year? In what order do these things happen? Etc. etc.
If I got anything out of the thousands of words of debate on the site in the last couple of months, it’s the answers to these questions that folks seem to disagree about (though I think I only actually have a good sense of Paul’s answers to these). Also curious to see more specific answers / timelines.
The same point was made on the Effective Altruism Forum and it’s a considerable one. Yet I expected that.
The problem frustrating me is that the relative number of individuals who have volunteered their own numbers is so low it’s an insignificant minority. One person doesn’t disagree with their own self unless there is model uncertainty or whatever. Unless individual posts or comments among all of that debate provide specific answers or timelines, not enough people are providing helpful, quantitative information that would take trivial effort to provide.
Thank you though for providing your own numbers.