GovAI is working on a survey of ML experts about timelines (among other things). It looks like this is supposed to replicate the influential Grace et al. (2017) survey.
They are asking various questions about human-level AI forecasts and predicted AI progress milestones. You can see the questions and other info about it here: https://osf.io/b239h/
It looks the survey may have actually been conducted back in 2019 but the results aren’t published yet. (Update:The results are published now.) So it’s moving slowly but once out may be a good formal resource on timelines to complement a lot of the informal conversations scattered about on the forums.
I’m not sure the status of this but would be interested to know if someone has a chance to reach out to Baobao Zhang who I believe is leading the effort.
GovAI is working on a survey of ML experts about timelines (among other things). It looks like this is supposed to replicate the influential Grace et al. (2017) survey.
They are asking various questions about human-level AI forecasts and predicted AI progress milestones. You can see the questions and other info about it here: https://osf.io/b239h/
It looks the survey may have actually been conducted back in 2019 but the results aren’t published yet. (Update: The results are published now.) So it’s moving slowly but once out may be a good formal resource on timelines to complement a lot of the informal conversations scattered about on the forums.
I’m not sure the status of this but would be interested to know if someone has a chance to reach out to Baobao Zhang who I believe is leading the effort.
I just sent Baobao an email to see if she has any information about when the results might be available.
Thank you!
The survey is out now: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132?context=cs
Related tweet thread from Baobao Zhang: https://twitter.com/baobaofzhang/status/1536714594319753216
This is great news! This could even be a topic for one of our meetups!
Indeed! :)