My research in trying to write a novel about this subject seems to indicate the experts think that chip speeds and densities are improving so slowly there is no chance of building an AI smart enough to begin improving itself for at least fifteen to twenty years if even then. The only way it might happen sooner is if there was an emergent worldwide effort composed of many separate researchers focusing on different sub-problems of the same highly focused goal, like trying to invent the simplest possible self-replicating nanobot or smallest computing element.
Can you help me understand why chip speeds are a bottleneck? Why couldn’t an AI continue to advance by harnessing increased parallelized cloud compute?
This is due to the vast difference in capabilities between ICs and brains, which has a long way to go to overcome. A computer merely as powerful as a human brain would be the size of a large room and use a lot more energy.
My research in trying to write a novel about this subject seems to indicate the experts think that chip speeds and densities are improving so slowly there is no chance of building an AI smart enough to begin improving itself for at least fifteen to twenty years if even then. The only way it might happen sooner is if there was an emergent worldwide effort composed of many separate researchers focusing on different sub-problems of the same highly focused goal, like trying to invent the simplest possible self-replicating nanobot or smallest computing element.
Can you help me understand why chip speeds are a bottleneck? Why couldn’t an AI continue to advance by harnessing increased parallelized cloud compute?
This is due to the vast difference in capabilities between ICs and brains, which has a long way to go to overcome. A computer merely as powerful as a human brain would be the size of a large room and use a lot more energy.