Paschal’s targeted advertising: How can you be against targeted ads when they’re showing you deals that have positive EV for you?
There’s an attention cost with evaluating whether the deal is in fact positive EV. And effective ads will mostly have a higher attention cost—There’s a “valley of difficult choices” where the EV is close to zero. Most ads you see are to the left of the valley: strongly negative-EV deals that you don’t really consider. But more effective targeted ads will move the needle to the right on average, forcing you to pay more attention to all ads because now their expected ability to give you good deals is higher. (so basically, “with the changes in attention cost, it’s not actually positive EV”).
Privacy—most of us value it as a good in itself. We have nothing to hide but we still don’t want to show you. We get a bad feeling knowing that some random uncaring stranger knows specific details about us. (so basically, “with the utility cost in privacy, it’s not actually positive EV”).
Randomized priorities- sure I do actually want the gardening tools, but I was gonna look at that two weeks from now, after my Florida trip. I have to plan my Florida trip right now. - And then I see the ad for exactly the product I want, and my attention is too hijacked to ignore it. The decisions I have to make in the near future are ordered by priority, and it takes some amount of mental effort to enforce that priority. Targeted ads actively fight that order by taking some random thing I want and asking me to make that decision right now. (so basically, “with the increased willpower needed to enforce decision priority, it’s not actually positive EV”).
All of this stands against a backdrop of: It’s actually really easy for a consumer to take initiative to find the product they want. It’s never been easier compare alternate products and get a view of the whole market for something. So this is the era in which we least need companies to take the initiative to find us.
Paschal’s targeted advertising: How can you be against targeted ads when they’re showing you deals that have positive EV for you?
There’s an attention cost with evaluating whether the deal is in fact positive EV. And effective ads will mostly have a higher attention cost—There’s a “valley of difficult choices” where the EV is close to zero. Most ads you see are to the left of the valley: strongly negative-EV deals that you don’t really consider. But more effective targeted ads will move the needle to the right on average, forcing you to pay more attention to all ads because now their expected ability to give you good deals is higher. (so basically, “with the changes in attention cost, it’s not actually positive EV”).
Privacy—most of us value it as a good in itself. We have nothing to hide but we still don’t want to show you. We get a bad feeling knowing that some random uncaring stranger knows specific details about us. (so basically, “with the utility cost in privacy, it’s not actually positive EV”).
Randomized priorities- sure I do actually want the gardening tools, but I was gonna look at that two weeks from now, after my Florida trip. I have to plan my Florida trip right now. - And then I see the ad for exactly the product I want, and my attention is too hijacked to ignore it. The decisions I have to make in the near future are ordered by priority, and it takes some amount of mental effort to enforce that priority. Targeted ads actively fight that order by taking some random thing I want and asking me to make that decision right now. (so basically, “with the increased willpower needed to enforce decision priority, it’s not actually positive EV”).
All of this stands against a backdrop of: It’s actually really easy for a consumer to take initiative to find the product they want. It’s never been easier compare alternate products and get a view of the whole market for something. So this is the era in which we least need companies to take the initiative to find us.