It all depends on the topic. It’s unlikely that the consensus about objective fields like mathematics or physics are wrong. The more subjective, controversial, and political something is, and the more profit and power lies in controlling the consensus, the more skepticism is appropriate.
The bias on Wikipedia (used as an example) is correlated in this manner, CW topics have a lot of misinformation, while things that people aren’t likely to feel strongly about are written more honestly.
If some redpills or blackpills turned out to be true, or some harsh-sounding aspects of reality related to discrimination, selection, biases or differences in humans turned out to be true, or some harsh philosophy like “suffering is good for you”, “poverty is negatively correlated with virtuous acts” or “People unconsciously want to be ruled” turned out to be true, would you hear about it from somebody with a good reputation?
I also think it’s worth noting that both the original view and the contrarian view might be overstated. That education isn’t useless nor as good as we make it out to be. I’ve personally found myself annoyed at exaggerations like “X is totally safe, it never has any side-effects” or “People basically never do Y, it is less likely than being hit by lightning” (despite millions of people participating because it’s relevant for their future, thousands of which are mentally ill by statistic necessity). This has made me want to push back, but the opposing evidence is likely exaggerated or cherry-picked as well, since people feel strongly about various conflicts.
The optimization target is Truth only to the extent that Truth is rewarded. If something else has a higher priority, then the truth will be distorted. But due to the broken-windows theory, it might be better to trust society too much rather than too little. I don’t want to spread doubt, it might be harmful even in the case that I’m right.
The roundness of the earth is not a point upon which any political philosophy hinges, yet flat earthism is a thing. The roundness is not subjective, it isn’t controversial, and it does not advance anyone’s economic interest. So why do people engage in this sort of contrarianism? I speculate that the act of being a contrarian signals to others that you question authority. The bigger the consensus challenged, the more disdain for authority shown. One’s willingness to question authority is often used as a proxy for “independent thinking.” The thought is that someone who questions authority might be more likely to accept new evidence. But questioning authority is not the same as being an independent thinker, and so, when taken to its extreme, it leads to denying reality, because isn’t reality the ultimate authority?
That’s a great example of something which doesn’t follow the dynamics that I mentioned! I think that your example relates to the dynamics of cults and religions. They do blend into politics a little bit as they’re fed by a distrust in the system and in authorities in general. But I agree that the earth being flat would be a strange thing to lie about, unlike microchips, electromagnetic harassment, UFOs, lizard-people, and the cure of cancer.
There’s other related ideas like “secret knowledge”, but at this level, we’re practically talking about symptoms of paranoid skizophrenia. But flat earthers seem more common than the rate of skizophrenia would suggest, so I’m not sure how to explain this gap.
Maybe these “independent thinkers” just hate authority, by which I mean that they’re not the non-conformists that they appear to be. But being entirely alone in ones beliefs is quite painful, so if the only group which shares ones hatred of authority believes that the earth is flat, maybe the desire to fit in is strong enough that one deceive themselves. And people who believe in one conspiracy seem likely to believe in multiple theories, which is very likely an important piece of information if you want to understand these people.
Another guess is that nihilism is too painful. You know that “I want to believe” poster? I think we should take the word “want” literally. If you can’t believe in god, but find the idea of an inert, material universe too painful to bear, you will look for signs of magic or anything interesting. Luck, karma, aura, chakra, fate, - anything to spice up your life, anything to add additional meaning and possibilities to life. A large-scale conspiracy could fill this need. You’d also go from being a crazy loser to being a warrior fighting against the corrupt, deceptive system. In other words, a conspiracy like this being true would elevate the importance of the individual.
It all depends on the topic. It’s unlikely that the consensus about objective fields like mathematics or physics are wrong. The more subjective, controversial, and political something is, and the more profit and power lies in controlling the consensus, the more skepticism is appropriate.
The bias on Wikipedia (used as an example) is correlated in this manner, CW topics have a lot of misinformation, while things that people aren’t likely to feel strongly about are written more honestly.
If some redpills or blackpills turned out to be true, or some harsh-sounding aspects of reality related to discrimination, selection, biases or differences in humans turned out to be true, or some harsh philosophy like “suffering is good for you”, “poverty is negatively correlated with virtuous acts” or “People unconsciously want to be ruled” turned out to be true, would you hear about it from somebody with a good reputation?
I also think it’s worth noting that both the original view and the contrarian view might be overstated. That education isn’t useless nor as good as we make it out to be. I’ve personally found myself annoyed at exaggerations like “X is totally safe, it never has any side-effects” or “People basically never do Y, it is less likely than being hit by lightning” (despite millions of people participating because it’s relevant for their future, thousands of which are mentally ill by statistic necessity). This has made me want to push back, but the opposing evidence is likely exaggerated or cherry-picked as well, since people feel strongly about various conflicts.
The optimization target is Truth only to the extent that Truth is rewarded. If something else has a higher priority, then the truth will be distorted. But due to the broken-windows theory, it might be better to trust society too much rather than too little. I don’t want to spread doubt, it might be harmful even in the case that I’m right.
The roundness of the earth is not a point upon which any political philosophy hinges, yet flat earthism is a thing. The roundness is not subjective, it isn’t controversial, and it does not advance anyone’s economic interest. So why do people engage in this sort of contrarianism? I speculate that the act of being a contrarian signals to others that you question authority. The bigger the consensus challenged, the more disdain for authority shown. One’s willingness to question authority is often used as a proxy for “independent thinking.” The thought is that someone who questions authority might be more likely to accept new evidence. But questioning authority is not the same as being an independent thinker, and so, when taken to its extreme, it leads to denying reality, because isn’t reality the ultimate authority?
That’s a great example of something which doesn’t follow the dynamics that I mentioned! I think that your example relates to the dynamics of cults and religions. They do blend into politics a little bit as they’re fed by a distrust in the system and in authorities in general. But I agree that the earth being flat would be a strange thing to lie about, unlike microchips, electromagnetic harassment, UFOs, lizard-people, and the cure of cancer.
There’s other related ideas like “secret knowledge”, but at this level, we’re practically talking about symptoms of paranoid skizophrenia. But flat earthers seem more common than the rate of skizophrenia would suggest, so I’m not sure how to explain this gap.
Maybe these “independent thinkers” just hate authority, by which I mean that they’re not the non-conformists that they appear to be. But being entirely alone in ones beliefs is quite painful, so if the only group which shares ones hatred of authority believes that the earth is flat, maybe the desire to fit in is strong enough that one deceive themselves. And people who believe in one conspiracy seem likely to believe in multiple theories, which is very likely an important piece of information if you want to understand these people.
Another guess is that nihilism is too painful. You know that “I want to believe” poster? I think we should take the word “want” literally. If you can’t believe in god, but find the idea of an inert, material universe too painful to bear, you will look for signs of magic or anything interesting. Luck, karma, aura, chakra, fate, - anything to spice up your life, anything to add additional meaning and possibilities to life. A large-scale conspiracy could fill this need. You’d also go from being a crazy loser to being a warrior fighting against the corrupt, deceptive system. In other words, a conspiracy like this being true would elevate the importance of the individual.