Whenever EB catches somebody this way, I always read it as that he’s bluffing. After all, the perp always confesses when confronted with the alleged proof, so it really doesn’t matter how EB knows (psychological analysis, another clue that would be harder to explain, the knowledge that Bugs Meany always lies); he just has to wait around until he can find something that he can claim proves his case.
Or non-facts.
I haven’t read them, but I think it a bad sign that the tvtropes article “Conviction by Counterfactual Clue” is also known as “Encyclopedia Browned”.
Whenever EB catches somebody this way, I always read it as that he’s bluffing. After all, the perp always confesses when confronted with the alleged proof, so it really doesn’t matter how EB knows (psychological analysis, another clue that would be harder to explain, the knowledge that Bugs Meany always lies); he just has to wait around until he can find something that he can claim proves his case.