Well, to be fair, his timeline also turned out to be pretty wrong—the Internet took longer to get going than he thought, and obviously a UIM didn’t show up in 1993 or 1994. If it’s only in the 201x or 202x that the issues have been thoroughly discussed, then it’s all of a piece.
(I liked his discussion of the ‘just unplug the power plug’ strategy.)
Given that Good’s 1970 paper is the second substantive analysis (after Good 1965) of some implications of machine superintelligence, it’s odd that “Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import” (2012) will end up being the first article to cite it for its discussion of machine superintelligence. The paper was briefly famous for letting slip some details of his secret WWII work with Turing, while its discussion of machine superintelligence and its proposal for an association to discuss the implications of machine superintelligence (Singularity Institute, anyone?) fell into the void.
The paper was briefly famous for letting slip some details of his secret WWII work with Turing
Really? I noticed it mentioned some computing machine they used in the taxonomy of generations but I had no idea it was a secret. How weird that seems in this day where all the secrets of Bletchley Park are known...
Not really, although I have to admit the bit about the computer propagandizing against them gave me pause: who do you see evangelizing against Luddism? High-level tech types like Marc Andreessen and tenured or well-paid economists...
Can anyone get behind the paywall to grab me this article?
I.J. Good (1970). Some future social repercussions of computers.
I don’t have direct access, but I’ve requested it, and I should have an electronic copy in 1-3 days.
He got it off of Reddit.
Funny quote from the article:
Sorry, Jack. It’s 2012 and I’m afraid the implications and safeguards concerning machine superintelligence have still not been “thoroughly” discussed.
Well, to be fair, his timeline also turned out to be pretty wrong—the Internet took longer to get going than he thought, and obviously a UIM didn’t show up in 1993 or 1994. If it’s only in the 201x or 202x that the issues have been thoroughly discussed, then it’s all of a piece.
(I liked his discussion of the ‘just unplug the power plug’ strategy.)
Given that Good’s 1970 paper is the second substantive analysis (after Good 1965) of some implications of machine superintelligence, it’s odd that “Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import” (2012) will end up being the first article to cite it for its discussion of machine superintelligence. The paper was briefly famous for letting slip some details of his secret WWII work with Turing, while its discussion of machine superintelligence and its proposal for an association to discuss the implications of machine superintelligence (Singularity Institute, anyone?) fell into the void.
Really? I noticed it mentioned some computing machine they used in the taxonomy of generations but I had no idea it was a secret. How weird that seems in this day where all the secrets of Bletchley Park are known...
“Ludditeniks” does kinda roll off the tongue, doesn’t it?
Not really, although I have to admit the bit about the computer propagandizing against them gave me pause: who do you see evangelizing against Luddism? High-level tech types like Marc Andreessen and tenured or well-paid economists...
Excellent.