Lucky individuals often find something which has a long inference chain. Not a one-step improvement to existing theory, but many steps further. To the experts, it may look like a few new steps, combined masterfully. To the non-expert, they may need to learn about 100 new concepts for it to make sense. That’s why 100 non-experts can’t just invent general relativity, they need to take a 100 steps, 1 step each, but all in the same direction.
How many dimensions is inference space? How many duck-sized horses do we need, to have a 2⁄3 chance of taking those steps? And are they being modeled as duck-sized monkeys with typewriters, or are they closer to a proper mini-Einstein, who is likely to go the correct direction?
Lucky individuals often find something which has a long inference chain. Not a one-step improvement to existing theory, but many steps further. To the experts, it may look like a few new steps, combined masterfully. To the non-expert, they may need to learn about 100 new concepts for it to make sense. That’s why 100 non-experts can’t just invent general relativity, they need to take a 100 steps, 1 step each, but all in the same direction.
How many dimensions is inference space? How many duck-sized horses do we need, to have a 2⁄3 chance of taking those steps? And are they being modeled as duck-sized monkeys with typewriters, or are they closer to a proper mini-Einstein, who is likely to go the correct direction?