Seconded—I’d like to see more of this angle of analysis too. I assume the reason why the ‘soft take-off’ is underdiscussed is that tech people a) pay more attention to the news on AI, and b) see the future of this stuff viscerally and the endgame is what looms. I think that’s not wrong, because the endgame is indeed transformative. But how we get there and how quickly it happens is a completely open question.
I work in the AEC industry (Architecture, Engineering, Construction) − 90%+ of people have zero idea about recent advances in AI. But on the other hand, should they be personally worried about their employment prospects in the next decade? I feel like lots of LW-type people would say “Yes!”—I can only speak personally, but it’s really hard for me to see it happening. If only for the fact that doing anything in meatspace takes a long time. There are plenty of great ‘digital’ solutions to problems in this industry that have been around for 10+ years and have still made no headway. I know AGI is different, but it’s worth mentioning how slow things can be, and how much of a grinding bureaucracy many industries are.
The other way I think about it is that ultimately human concerns (politics, agency etc) underpin all economic activity, and there will be massive political and bureaucratic opposition to extreme levels of economic ‘disruption’ (in the negative sense of mass unemployment etc). I foresee active responses from the populace and governments shaping the path this takes to a significant degree (eg. increases in labour force protectionism). Not so much that capitalism just takes to AI like a duck to water, governments let it happen, and 99% of people end up in a terrafoam box in a few short years.
Seconded—I’d like to see more of this angle of analysis too. I assume the reason why the ‘soft take-off’ is underdiscussed is that tech people a) pay more attention to the news on AI, and b) see the future of this stuff viscerally and the endgame is what looms. I think that’s not wrong, because the endgame is indeed transformative. But how we get there and how quickly it happens is a completely open question.
I work in the AEC industry (Architecture, Engineering, Construction) − 90%+ of people have zero idea about recent advances in AI. But on the other hand, should they be personally worried about their employment prospects in the next decade? I feel like lots of LW-type people would say “Yes!”—I can only speak personally, but it’s really hard for me to see it happening. If only for the fact that doing anything in meatspace takes a long time. There are plenty of great ‘digital’ solutions to problems in this industry that have been around for 10+ years and have still made no headway. I know AGI is different, but it’s worth mentioning how slow things can be, and how much of a grinding bureaucracy many industries are.
The other way I think about it is that ultimately human concerns (politics, agency etc) underpin all economic activity, and there will be massive political and bureaucratic opposition to extreme levels of economic ‘disruption’ (in the negative sense of mass unemployment etc). I foresee active responses from the populace and governments shaping the path this takes to a significant degree (eg. increases in labour force protectionism). Not so much that capitalism just takes to AI like a duck to water, governments let it happen, and 99% of people end up in a terrafoam box in a few short years.