In writing How much should we value life?, I spent some time digging into AI timeline stuff. It lead me to When Will AI Be Created?, written by Luke Muehlhauser for MIRI. He noted that there is reason not to trust expert opinions on AI timelines, and that trend extrapolation may be a good alternative. This point you’re making about GDP seems like it is real progress towards coming up with a good way to do trend extrapolation, and thus seems worth a full post IMO. (Assuming it isn’t already well known by the community or something, which I don’t get the sense is the case.)
In writing How much should we value life?, I spent some time digging into AI timeline stuff. It lead me to When Will AI Be Created?, written by Luke Muehlhauser for MIRI. He noted that there is reason not to trust expert opinions on AI timelines, and that trend extrapolation may be a good alternative. This point you’re making about GDP seems like it is real progress towards coming up with a good way to do trend extrapolation, and thus seems worth a full post IMO. (Assuming it isn’t already well known by the community or something, which I don’t get the sense is the case.)