How sure are you that the composition is interesting? How many of these are just quick mask-makers or sanitizer-makers, or just replacing restaurants that have now gone out of business? (ie very low-value-added companies, of the ‘making fast food in a stall in a Third World country’ sort of ‘startup’, which make essentially no or negative long-term contributions).
Good question. I haven’t seen particularly detailed data on these on FRED, but they do have separate series for “high propensity” business applications (businesses they think are likely to hire employees), business applications with planned wages, and business applications from corporations, as well as series for each state. The spike is smaller for planned wages, and nonexistent for corporations, so the new businesses are probably mostly single proprietors or partnerships. Other than that, I don’t know what the breakdown looks like across industries.
How do you feel about this claim now? I haven’t noticed a whole lot of innovation coming from all these small businesses, and a lot of them seem like they were likely just vehicles for the extraordinary extent of fraud as the results from all the investigations & analyses come in.
… so it’s presumably also not just the result of pandemic giveaway fraud, unless that fraud is ongoing.
Presumably the thing to check here would be TFP, but Fred’s US TFP series currently only goes to end of 2019, so apparently we’re still waiting on that one? Either that or I’m looking at the wrong series.
How sure are you that the composition is interesting? How many of these are just quick mask-makers or sanitizer-makers, or just replacing restaurants that have now gone out of business? (ie very low-value-added companies, of the ‘making fast food in a stall in a Third World country’ sort of ‘startup’, which make essentially no or negative long-term contributions).
Good question. I haven’t seen particularly detailed data on these on FRED, but they do have separate series for “high propensity” business applications (businesses they think are likely to hire employees), business applications with planned wages, and business applications from corporations, as well as series for each state. The spike is smaller for planned wages, and nonexistent for corporations, so the new businesses are probably mostly single proprietors or partnerships. Other than that, I don’t know what the breakdown looks like across industries.
How do you feel about this claim now? I haven’t noticed a whole lot of innovation coming from all these small businesses, and a lot of them seem like they were likely just vehicles for the extraordinary extent of fraud as the results from all the investigations & analyses come in.
Well, it wasn’t just a temporary bump:
… so it’s presumably also not just the result of pandemic giveaway fraud, unless that fraud is ongoing.
Presumably the thing to check here would be TFP, but Fred’s US TFP series currently only goes to end of 2019, so apparently we’re still waiting on that one? Either that or I’m looking at the wrong series.