Further, it’s plausible that if you had a ‘budget’ of N prison places and M police officers for drink-driving deterrence, the most effective way to deploy it would be to arrange for a highish probability of an offender getting a short prison sentence, plus a low probability of getting a long sentence (because we know that a high probability of being caught has a large deterrent effect, and also that people overestimate the significance of a small chance of ‘winning the lottery’).
So the ‘high sentence only if you kill’ policy might turn out to be an efficient one (I don’t suppose the people who set sentencing policy are really thinking along this lines, though).
and also that people overestimate the significance of a small chance of ‘winning the lottery’
But people also play Martingale systems on roulette. These have a good chance of going well, and a small chance of going really, really, badly. So people don’t just overestimate small chances. I think they tend to overestimate the probability of events that benefit them, but this may depend on whether they are in near mode or far mode. If they were in far mode they might begin to fret more and more about the small probabilities.
Further, it’s plausible that if you had a ‘budget’ of N prison places and M police officers for drink-driving deterrence, the most effective way to deploy it would be to arrange for a highish probability of an offender getting a short prison sentence, plus a low probability of getting a long sentence (because we know that a high probability of being caught has a large deterrent effect, and also that people overestimate the significance of a small chance of ‘winning the lottery’).
So the ‘high sentence only if you kill’ policy might turn out to be an efficient one (I don’t suppose the people who set sentencing policy are really thinking along this lines, though).
But people also play Martingale systems on roulette. These have a good chance of going well, and a small chance of going really, really, badly. So people don’t just overestimate small chances. I think they tend to overestimate the probability of events that benefit them, but this may depend on whether they are in near mode or far mode. If they were in far mode they might begin to fret more and more about the small probabilities.