EDIT: I think I misunderstood. Just to confirm, did you mean this removes the point of bother with a base rate, or did you mean it helps explain why people are ending up at preposterously far distances from even a relatively generous base rate estimate?
I have placed many forecasts on things where I am incapable of holding all the possible outcomes in my head. In fact that is extremely common for a variety of domains. In replication markets for example, I have little comprehension of the indefinite number of theories that could in principle be made about what is being tested in the paper. Doesn’t stop me from having opinions about some ostensible result shown to me in a paper, and I’ll still do better than a random dart-throwing chimp at that.
Yes. Thats what I meant, it you only compare hypotheses A and B when there is a very large number of hypotheses that fit all known data you may become unreasonably confident in B if A is false.
EDIT: I think I misunderstood. Just to confirm, did you mean this removes the point of bother with a base rate, or did you mean it helps explain why people are ending up at preposterously far distances from even a relatively generous base rate estimate?
I have placed many forecasts on things where I am incapable of holding all the possible outcomes in my head. In fact that is extremely common for a variety of domains. In replication markets for example, I have little comprehension of the indefinite number of theories that could in principle be made about what is being tested in the paper. Doesn’t stop me from having opinions about some ostensible result shown to me in a paper, and I’ll still do better than a random dart-throwing chimp at that.
Yes. Thats what I meant, it you only compare hypotheses A and B when there is a very large number of hypotheses that fit all known data you may become unreasonably confident in B if A is false.