Reading about some of the studies that are coming out I even wonder what we even get from the testing. The reason I say that is that we’re starting to hear that testing for the presence of the immune response may tell us (but not always as apparently, not everyone produces the antibodies) someone was exposed but not that they are then safe from another infection. If so then will they be contagious again? (It did seem that those exposed who did produce a very strong response to the infection tend to be immune but I don’t know if that means they were exposed to a larger initial dose or a milder exposure.)
If that proves true (and it seems to be something that is becoming a concern with the Koreans and Chinese) what does that imply about how to respond.
I’m coming to a view that says we should try to figure out how to live with the virus for a while—and get on with the process or living, working, figuring out what socializing in the new world might mean. But that suggests we need to have available, affordable PPE that produces at least the same level of reduction in exposure risk as the current plan of social distancing.
All the reports of people becoming ill (or testing positive) after only a month are almost certainly not ‘reinfections’, rather are some combination of false negatives and people with immune systems damaged by the infection having a bit of a relapse. There are also no documented cases of one of these relapses infecting even close family contacts. Shed viruses seem to be nonviable with much less of an immune response than is required to clear it from within the body.
It is definitely possible that the immunity could fade rapidly, but even if that is true I expect second infections to be much less severe than the first infection. Mostly because it looks like most of why this disease is so severe is that the virus escapes the interferon response allowing it to replicate up to an obscene level before the adaptive immune system notices it. Even a weak antibody response will allow the innate immune system to notice the fact that there is an infection, and it will probably have a harder time replicating up to such ridiculous levels.
This being said… we are definitely going to be living with this bastard for a while.
Reading about some of the studies that are coming out I even wonder what we even get from the testing. The reason I say that is that we’re starting to hear that testing for the presence of the immune response may tell us (but not always as apparently, not everyone produces the antibodies) someone was exposed but not that they are then safe from another infection. If so then will they be contagious again? (It did seem that those exposed who did produce a very strong response to the infection tend to be immune but I don’t know if that means they were exposed to a larger initial dose or a milder exposure.)
If that proves true (and it seems to be something that is becoming a concern with the Koreans and Chinese) what does that imply about how to respond.
I’m coming to a view that says we should try to figure out how to live with the virus for a while—and get on with the process or living, working, figuring out what socializing in the new world might mean. But that suggests we need to have available, affordable PPE that produces at least the same level of reduction in exposure risk as the current plan of social distancing.
All the reports of people becoming ill (or testing positive) after only a month are almost certainly not ‘reinfections’, rather are some combination of false negatives and people with immune systems damaged by the infection having a bit of a relapse. There are also no documented cases of one of these relapses infecting even close family contacts. Shed viruses seem to be nonviable with much less of an immune response than is required to clear it from within the body.
It is definitely possible that the immunity could fade rapidly, but even if that is true I expect second infections to be much less severe than the first infection. Mostly because it looks like most of why this disease is so severe is that the virus escapes the interferon response allowing it to replicate up to an obscene level before the adaptive immune system notices it. Even a weak antibody response will allow the innate immune system to notice the fact that there is an infection, and it will probably have a harder time replicating up to such ridiculous levels.
This being said… we are definitely going to be living with this bastard for a while.