I’m confused about the design of the Oracle. Why is it predicting the combined probability of how you will bet and who will win the game, rather than just who will win (and perhaps how you will bet, but reported separately)?
It has to be the case that EITHER the Oracle is including your decisions in it’s model (including the information it expects you to have at the time of the decision) OR the Oracle is very stupidly giving you misleading results. How to use a perverse or adversarial Oracle is something that deserves it’s own field of study, but it should be separate from identifying confusion or paradoxes about counterfactuals (especially those that actually occur!).
I’m confused about the design of the Oracle. Why is it predicting the combined probability of how you will bet and who will win the game, rather than just who will win (and perhaps how you will bet, but reported separately)?
It has to be the case that EITHER the Oracle is including your decisions in it’s model (including the information it expects you to have at the time of the decision) OR the Oracle is very stupidly giving you misleading results. How to use a perverse or adversarial Oracle is something that deserves it’s own field of study, but it should be separate from identifying confusion or paradoxes about counterfactuals (especially those that actually occur!).
The Oracle is predicting the combined results because that’s what makes the thought experiment interesting.