The type of problem I predicted has occurred. There has been a runaway groupthink spiral of social desirability bias and common knowledge of false consensus (creating enforced real consensus). I did not specifically predict that outgroup-respectability would be the target but it is not a surprising target.
I noted that most actions are more status-motivated than they appear, even to the people doing them, and that this warps nearly everything we do; the problem noted here is that LW and the community are warping their actions and perceptions to accrue respectability, i.e. status.
I claimed moderation doubled down on this. Ben notes that it is in fact used in that way.
It’s possible I merely predicted the effects correctly and happened to be wrong about one of the major causes. But that isn’t the way to bet.
The type of problem I predicted has occurred. There has been a runaway groupthink spiral of social desirability bias and common knowledge of false consensus (creating enforced real consensus). I did not specifically predict that outgroup-respectability would be the target but it is not a surprising target.
I noted that most actions are more status-motivated than they appear, even to the people doing them, and that this warps nearly everything we do; the problem noted here is that LW and the community are warping their actions and perceptions to accrue respectability, i.e. status.
I claimed moderation doubled down on this. Ben notes that it is in fact used in that way.
It’s possible I merely predicted the effects correctly and happened to be wrong about one of the major causes. But that isn’t the way to bet.