Peter de Blanc: see http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/beware-the-insi.html, posted by Robin Hanson. In particular : “Most, perhaps all, ways to overcome bias seem like this. In the language of Kahneman and Lovallo’s classic ’93 paper, we allow an outside view to overrule an inside view… If overcoming bias comes down to having an outside view overrule an inside view, then our questions become: what are valid outside views, and what will motivate us to apply them?”
What do you think this means, if not that overcoming bias means taking outside views?
Peter de Blanc: see http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/beware-the-insi.html, posted by Robin Hanson. In particular : “Most, perhaps all, ways to overcome bias seem like this. In the language of Kahneman and Lovallo’s classic ’93 paper, we allow an outside view to overrule an inside view… If overcoming bias comes down to having an outside view overrule an inside view, then our questions become: what are valid outside views, and what will motivate us to apply them?”
What do you think this means, if not that overcoming bias means taking outside views?