I’m just curious if anyone has weighed the evidence from the Casey Anthony murder using a Bayesian filter. Someone made a very useful post like this for the Amanda Knox case, but I think for this case it would be even more useful. Given the apparent hysteria in traditional media, social networks, etc. it would be great to have a nice dose of rationality about the case.
My gut feeling is that most people have not bothered to weight the evidence, but look at the surface layers of the case and judge based on questionable heuristics. It also seems to me that the members of the jury had a lot more time and reason to carefully weigh the evidence (even if they aren’t Bayesians) than your average, angry twitter user. Additionally, coming out on one side or another gives a great opportunity to signal (think of the children vs. strict constitutionalism).
Casey Anthony—analyzing evidence using Bayes
I’m just curious if anyone has weighed the evidence from the Casey Anthony murder using a Bayesian filter. Someone made a very useful post like this for the Amanda Knox case, but I think for this case it would be even more useful. Given the apparent hysteria in traditional media, social networks, etc. it would be great to have a nice dose of rationality about the case.
My gut feeling is that most people have not bothered to weight the evidence, but look at the surface layers of the case and judge based on questionable heuristics. It also seems to me that the members of the jury had a lot more time and reason to carefully weigh the evidence (even if they aren’t Bayesians) than your average, angry twitter user. Additionally, coming out on one side or another gives a great opportunity to signal (think of the children vs. strict constitutionalism).
Any thoughts?