This seems to get into problems with what the decision problem actually is. If you’re “updateless” but you already know you’re in this particular counterfactual mugging, you may respond much differently than if you’re merely considering this as one of many possible muggings. Specifically, in the first case, any Omega is a cheapskate Omega if it chooses something like “P and not P”. In the latter case, however, we might know that Omega arrives at absurdities such as this through a fair process which is equally likely to select true sentences. In that case, despite not being updateless enough to be ignorant about “P and not P”, we might go along with the mogging as part of a policy which achieves high payout on average.
This seems to get into problems with what the decision problem actually is. If you’re “updateless” but you already know you’re in this particular counterfactual mugging, you may respond much differently than if you’re merely considering this as one of many possible muggings. Specifically, in the first case, any Omega is a cheapskate Omega if it chooses something like “P and not P”. In the latter case, however, we might know that Omega arrives at absurdities such as this through a fair process which is equally likely to select true sentences. In that case, despite not being updateless enough to be ignorant about “P and not P”, we might go along with the mogging as part of a policy which achieves high payout on average.