I think this post makes a few good points, but I think the norm of “before you claim that someone is overconfident or generally untrustworthy, start by actually showing that any of their object-level points are inaccurate” seems pretty reasonable to me, and seems to me more like what Eliezer was talking about.
Like, your post here seems to create a strong distinction between “arguing against Eliezer on the issues of FDT” and “arguing that Eliezer is untrustworthy based on his opinion on FDT”, but like, I do think that the first step to either should be to actually make object-level arguments (omnizoid’s post did that a bit, but as I commented on the post, the ratio of snark to object-level content was really quite bad).
The relevant point here, I think, is that there’s nothing wrong with stating the general characterization first, if that’s the point of your post. Of course support your claims, of course make sure most of your post is actual substance and not empty snark; but the ordering should follow the rules of clear writing (which may dictate one or another order, as befits the case), not some purported (and, as Zack says, in truth nonexistent) epistemic rule that the object level must come first.
This is really nothing more than the perfectly ordinary “tell them what you’re going to tell them, then tell them, then tell them what you’ve told them” sort of thing. Obviously you must not skip the middle part, but neither is there any law that says that actually, the middle part must come first.
I think this post makes a few good points, but I think the norm of “before you claim that someone is overconfident or generally untrustworthy, start by actually showing that any of their object-level points are inaccurate” seems pretty reasonable to me, and seems to me more like what Eliezer was talking about.
Like, your post here seems to create a strong distinction between “arguing against Eliezer on the issues of FDT” and “arguing that Eliezer is untrustworthy based on his opinion on FDT”, but like, I do think that the first step to either should be to actually make object-level arguments (omnizoid’s post did that a bit, but as I commented on the post, the ratio of snark to object-level content was really quite bad).
The relevant point here, I think, is that there’s nothing wrong with stating the general characterization first, if that’s the point of your post. Of course support your claims, of course make sure most of your post is actual substance and not empty snark; but the ordering should follow the rules of clear writing (which may dictate one or another order, as befits the case), not some purported (and, as Zack says, in truth nonexistent) epistemic rule that the object level must come first.
This is really nothing more than the perfectly ordinary “tell them what you’re going to tell them, then tell them, then tell them what you’ve told them” sort of thing. Obviously you must not skip the middle part, but neither is there any law that says that actually, the middle part must come first.