The main issue I see with this prediction is that ‘computer programming becoming easier’ has already happened before, and has not had this effect.
Programming has become easier as new languages sanded the rough edges off and automated a lot of rote Assembly work, and as widespread Internet use allowed you to find solutions fast. It was much harder to code on punch cards, or in Assembly, than to code today with StackOverflow’s help.
However, this didn’t lead to programming becoming less of a career, and I don’t think it led to programmers being less well paid either.
There’s a possibility that ‘the average programmer’ might become less well-paid as the definition of ‘programmer’ expands, but I don’t anticipate a given level of programming skill becoming less valuable until AIs reach a pretty-much-singularity level.
The main issue I see with this prediction is that ‘computer programming becoming easier’ has already happened before, and has not had this effect.
Programming has become easier as new languages sanded the rough edges off and automated a lot of rote Assembly work, and as widespread Internet use allowed you to find solutions fast. It was much harder to code on punch cards, or in Assembly, than to code today with StackOverflow’s help.
However, this didn’t lead to programming becoming less of a career, and I don’t think it led to programmers being less well paid either.
There’s a possibility that ‘the average programmer’ might become less well-paid as the definition of ‘programmer’ expands, but I don’t anticipate a given level of programming skill becoming less valuable until AIs reach a pretty-much-singularity level.
(Disclosure: am a programmer)