I don’t think it’s a dramatic problem in the next ten years but
So we need to convince Gates that even though unfriendly AI almost certainly won’t appear in the next ten years, he should devote resources to the problem now.
Does he think that it isn’t worth investing in yet?
Him thinking that it won’t appear in the next ten years doesn’t mean he thinks that we shouldn’t devote resources to it yet. Has he done things that imply that he doesn’t think it’s worth investing in yet (I genuinely don’t know)?
So we need to convince Gates that even though unfriendly AI almost certainly won’t appear in the next ten years, he should devote resources to the problem now.
Widespread catastrophic consequences from global warming also “almost certainly won’t appear in the next ten years”.
Gates has spent a good chunk of change on no carbon energy, partially to combat global warming, and partially to alleviate poverty.
Seems to be sympatico on the importance of R&D.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-miracle-seeker-20101028?page=2
Q: What have you learned about energy politics in your trips to Washington?
A: The most important thing is to start working on the long-lead-time stuff early. That’s why the funding for R&D feels urgent to me.
That doesn’t sound like he’s putting it off.
That was in reference to the labor issue, right?
AI that can’t compete in the job market probably isn’t a global catastrophic risk.
Does he think that it isn’t worth investing in yet?
Him thinking that it won’t appear in the next ten years doesn’t mean he thinks that we shouldn’t devote resources to it yet. Has he done things that imply that he doesn’t think it’s worth investing in yet (I genuinely don’t know)?