New U.S. sanctions on Russia (70%): Scott holds, I sell to 60%.
This seems like a better sale than the sale on Russia going to war, by a substantial amount. So if I was being consistent I should have sold more here. Given that I was wrong about the chances of the war, the sale would have been bad, but I didn’t know that at the time. Therefore this still counts as a mistake not to sell more.
This seems like a conjunctive fallacy. “US sanctions Russia” is very possible outside “Russia goes to war”, even if “Russia goes to war” implies “US sanctions Russia”. You had 30% on “major flare up in Russia-Ukraine”. Perhaps you are anchoring your relative sells or something?
I obviously agree that you know these things, and am only noting a self-flagellation that seemed unearned. Thanks for writing Zvi!
This seems like a conjunctive fallacy. “US sanctions Russia” is very possible outside “Russia goes to war”, even if “Russia goes to war” implies “US sanctions Russia”. You had 30% on “major flare up in Russia-Ukraine”. Perhaps you are anchoring your relative sells or something?
I obviously agree that you know these things, and am only noting a self-flagellation that seemed unearned. Thanks for writing Zvi!