I’m not sure how this would work, especially in conflicting-expectation cases (one person watches a die roll 20 times, another person only saw the last 5, they have DIFFERENT expectations in this non-independent-trials world. What actually happens with what frequency? Depending on specifics, presumably casinos hire people to differentially watch games and preferentially shuffle or change the dice.
Other good effects: nobody expects to get cancer, so I guess it doesn’t happen?
But really, it’s just confused in conception—this fallacy is based on a reference class—events are no longer independent, but it’s unclear in what way they’re entangled. If I roll 12 different dice, does it apply? If I roll the same die 12 times, but only observe the first 2 and the last, do the 8 unobserved rolls affect the expectation?
Other good effects: nobody expects to get cancer, so I guess it doesn’t happen?
Things happen exactly as in reality except the existence of expectation applies a base-rate multiplier. So there would be more disease because e.g. hypochondriacs would be more likely than normal to contract disease.
There are many ways conflicting expectations could resolve, I’m not sure which would make the most sense. It could be a flat vote or have magnitude proportional to the amount of observations.
I’m not sure how this would work, especially in conflicting-expectation cases (one person watches a die roll 20 times, another person only saw the last 5, they have DIFFERENT expectations in this non-independent-trials world. What actually happens with what frequency? Depending on specifics, presumably casinos hire people to differentially watch games and preferentially shuffle or change the dice.
Other good effects: nobody expects to get cancer, so I guess it doesn’t happen?
But really, it’s just confused in conception—this fallacy is based on a reference class—events are no longer independent, but it’s unclear in what way they’re entangled. If I roll 12 different dice, does it apply? If I roll the same die 12 times, but only observe the first 2 and the last, do the 8 unobserved rolls affect the expectation?
Things happen exactly as in reality except the existence of expectation applies a base-rate multiplier. So there would be more disease because e.g. hypochondriacs would be more likely than normal to contract disease.
There are many ways conflicting expectations could resolve, I’m not sure which would make the most sense. It could be a flat vote or have magnitude proportional to the amount of observations.