My model actually considers information warfare to have mostly become an issue recently (10-20 years) and that these institutions evolved before that. Mainly, information warfare is worth considering because
1) it is highly relevant to AI governance, as no matter what your model of government elites looks like, the modern information warfare environment strongly indicates that they will (at least initially) see the concept of a machine god as some sort of 21st-century-style ploy
2) although there are serious falsifiability problems that limit the expected value of researching potential high-competence decisionmaking and institutional structure within intelligence agencies, I’m arguing that the expected value is not very low because the evidence for incompetence is also weak (albeit less weak) and that evidence of incompetence all the way up is also an active information battleground (e.g. the news articles about Trump and the nuclear chain of command during the election dispute and jan 6th).
My model actually considers information warfare to have mostly become an issue recently (10-20 years) and that these institutions evolved before that. Mainly, information warfare is worth considering because
1) it is highly relevant to AI governance, as no matter what your model of government elites looks like, the modern information warfare environment strongly indicates that they will (at least initially) see the concept of a machine god as some sort of 21st-century-style ploy
2) although there are serious falsifiability problems that limit the expected value of researching potential high-competence decisionmaking and institutional structure within intelligence agencies, I’m arguing that the expected value is not very low because the evidence for incompetence is also weak (albeit less weak) and that evidence of incompetence all the way up is also an active information battleground (e.g. the news articles about Trump and the nuclear chain of command during the election dispute and jan 6th).