Please read it in the context of the comment I was replying to. Vladimir_Nesov was trying to show how my mapping of insurance to Newcomb didn’t carry over one important aspect, and my reply was that when you consistently carry over the mapping, it does.
That is the context that I read it in. He pointed out that counterfactual mugging is equivalent to insurance only if you fail to update on the information about which way the coin fell before deciding (not) to play. You responded that this made no difference because you didn’t regret buying insurance a year later (when you have the information but don’t get to reverse the purchase).
I guess I should have asked for clarification on what he meant by the “improbable conclusion” that the counterfactual mugging suggests. I thought he meant that the possibility of being counterfactually mugged implies the conclusion that you should pre-commit to paying the mugger, and not change your action based upon finding that you were on the losing side.
If that’s not the case, we’re starting from different premises.
In any case, I think the salient aspect is the same between the two cases: it is optimal to precommit to paying, even if it seems like being able to change course later would make you better off.
Please read it in the context of the comment I was replying to. Vladimir_Nesov was trying to show how my mapping of insurance to Newcomb didn’t carry over one important aspect, and my reply was that when you consistently carry over the mapping, it does.
That is the context that I read it in. He pointed out that counterfactual mugging is equivalent to insurance only if you fail to update on the information about which way the coin fell before deciding (not) to play. You responded that this made no difference because you didn’t regret buying insurance a year later (when you have the information but don’t get to reverse the purchase).
I guess I should have asked for clarification on what he meant by the “improbable conclusion” that the counterfactual mugging suggests. I thought he meant that the possibility of being counterfactually mugged implies the conclusion that you should pre-commit to paying the mugger, and not change your action based upon finding that you were on the losing side.
If that’s not the case, we’re starting from different premises.
In any case, I think the salient aspect is the same between the two cases: it is optimal to precommit to paying, even if it seems like being able to change course later would make you better off.