I don’t see where the second- and third-to-last links contain information on contagiousness. To make sure I’m not missing something:
the section under “when someone is infectious” says “The onset and duration of viral shedding and period of infectiousness for COVID-19 are not yet known”
For anyone just tuning in, David Manheim and I have a pre-existing dispute over the usefulness of CDC-given information. I’m going to leave this up because others might find it useful, and I’m not going to respond directly because there’s no reason to expect it to go differently than the last 5 times we discussed the CDC, but I do think he’s wrong.
If you are asking about the R_0, there is a lot of information that you’re mentioned elsewhere. If you’re asking about infectiousness time periods, CDC has information that you just cited. You’re looking for numerical epidemiological estimates—and the papers on the epidemiology that CDC cites are very clear that they don’t have that good data. Do you want a proxy for modeling purposes? Feel free to use any of the guesses provided in the literature so far, but note that most places where data might have existed that could inform this are locked down, so there would be fairly little data to indicate if now-formerly infected people are still transmitting the disease.
So you’re asking for information that experts say is currently unknown. That means any supposed “answers” to how long the infectiousness period lasts that have been published so far are going to be misleading. And knowing that a clear answer doesn’t exist is valuable information—it means you can stop sources like businessinsider stating that on average after 17 days people who recover are released from the hospital—which may be a correct average, but as the CDC’s explanation about the need for testing viral load in individual cases before release from in-home isolation makes clear, tells you nothing about how long they remain infectious.
I don’t see where the second- and third-to-last links contain information on contagiousness. To make sure I’m not missing something:
the section under “when someone is infectious” says “The onset and duration of viral shedding and period of infectiousness for COVID-19 are not yet known”
Interim Guidance for Discontinuation of Transmission-Based Precautions and Disposition of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 contains considerations, but not instructions, for when to discontinue isolation, and nothing directly on when people are not contagious.
Am I missing something?
For anyone just tuning in, David Manheim and I have a pre-existing dispute over the usefulness of CDC-given information. I’m going to leave this up because others might find it useful, and I’m not going to respond directly because there’s no reason to expect it to go differently than the last 5 times we discussed the CDC, but I do think he’s wrong.
If you are asking about the R_0, there is a lot of information that you’re mentioned elsewhere. If you’re asking about infectiousness time periods, CDC has information that you just cited. You’re looking for numerical epidemiological estimates—and the papers on the epidemiology that CDC cites are very clear that they don’t have that good data. Do you want a proxy for modeling purposes? Feel free to use any of the guesses provided in the literature so far, but note that most places where data might have existed that could inform this are locked down, so there would be fairly little data to indicate if now-formerly infected people are still transmitting the disease.
So you’re asking for information that experts say is currently unknown. That means any supposed “answers” to how long the infectiousness period lasts that have been published so far are going to be misleading. And knowing that a clear answer doesn’t exist is valuable information—it means you can stop sources like businessinsider stating that on average after 17 days people who recover are released from the hospital—which may be a correct average, but as the CDC’s explanation about the need for testing viral load in individual cases before release from in-home isolation makes clear, tells you nothing about how long they remain infectious.