Excellent analysis! I’ve used the 18% point estimate from that Diamond Princess study without noticing that the math could be off.
One point to add: I’ve seen people say that asymptomatic presentations of SARS-CoV-2 infection might more common in young people, especially in the age range from 20-40. That age range was underrepresented on the cruise ship. For that reason, perhaps it’s possible for up to 65% of cases to be asymptomatic?
That said, I very much agree with you that the entire thing about asymptomatic presentations could be a myth based on false positives and confusing “asymptomatic” with “pre-symptomatic.” This study is the type of thing that would give us confidence in the existence of asymptomatic carriers – if only it had more examples than just one person.
I can’t rule out it being 65%, or even higher. I would judge it as pretty unlikely, since I expect many of the asymptomatics on the Diamond Princess to in fact be presymptomatic.
Excellent analysis! I’ve used the 18% point estimate from that Diamond Princess study without noticing that the math could be off.
One point to add: I’ve seen people say that asymptomatic presentations of SARS-CoV-2 infection might more common in young people, especially in the age range from 20-40. That age range was underrepresented on the cruise ship. For that reason, perhaps it’s possible for up to 65% of cases to be asymptomatic?
That said, I very much agree with you that the entire thing about asymptomatic presentations could be a myth based on false positives and confusing “asymptomatic” with “pre-symptomatic.” This study is the type of thing that would give us confidence in the existence of asymptomatic carriers – if only it had more examples than just one person.
I can’t rule out it being 65%, or even higher. I would judge it as pretty unlikely, since I expect many of the asymptomatics on the Diamond Princess to in fact be presymptomatic.
They kept them there for long enough that this seems unlikely.