I say maybe 1⁄5 chance it’s actually dominated by consequentialists
Do you get down to 20% because you think this argument is wrong, or because you think it doesn’t apply?
What problem do you think bites you?
What’s β? Is it O(1) or really tiny? And which value of c do you want to consider, polynomially small or exponentially small?
But if it somehow magically predicted which actions BoMAI was going to take in no time at all, then c would have to be above 1/d.
Wouldn’t they have to also magically predict all the stochasticity in the observations, and have a running time that grows exponentially in their log loss? Predicting what BoMAI will do seems likely to be much easier than that.
Do you get down to 20% because you think this argument is wrong, or because you think it doesn’t apply?
You argument is about a Bayes mixture, not a MAP estimate; I think the case is much stronger that consequentialists can take over a non-trivial fraction of a mixture. I think that the methods with consequentialists discover for gaining weight in the prior (before the treacherous turn) are mostly likely to be elegant (short description on UTM), and that is the consequentialists’ real competition; then [the probability the universe they live in produces them with their specific goals]or [the bits to directly specify a consequentialist deciding to to do this] set them back (in the MAP context).
I don’t see why their methods would be elegant. In particular, I don’t see why any of {the anthropic update, importance weighting, updating from the choice of universal prior} would have a simple form (simpler than the simplest physics that gives rise to life).
I don’t see how MAP helps things either—doesn’t the same argument suggest that for most of the possible physics, the simplest model will be a consequentialist? (Even more broadly, for the universal prior in general, isn’t MAP basically equivalent to a random sample from the prior, since some random model happens to be slightly more compressible?)
Yeah I think we have different intuitions here; are we at least within a few bits of log-odds disagreement? Even if not, I am not willing to stake anything on this intuition, so I’m not sure this is a hugely important disagreement for us to resolve.
I don’t see how MAP helps things either
I didn’t realize that you think that a single consequentialist would plausibly have the largest share of the posterior. I assumed your beliefs were in the neighborhood of:
it seems plausible that the weight of the consequentialist part is in excess of 1/million or 1/billion
(from your original post on this topic). In a Bayes mixture, I bet that a team of consequentialists that collectively amount to 1⁄10 or even 1⁄50 of the posterior could take over our world. In MAP, if you’re not first, you’re last, and more importantly, you can’t team up with other consequentialist-controlled world-models in the mixture.
Wouldn’t they have to also magically predict all the stochasticity in the observations, and have a running time that grows exponentially in their log loss?
Do you get down to 20% because you think this argument is wrong, or because you think it doesn’t apply?
What’s β? Is it O(1) or really tiny? And which value of c do you want to consider, polynomially small or exponentially small?
Wouldn’t they have to also magically predict all the stochasticity in the observations, and have a running time that grows exponentially in their log loss? Predicting what BoMAI will do seems likely to be much easier than that.
You argument is about a Bayes mixture, not a MAP estimate; I think the case is much stronger that consequentialists can take over a non-trivial fraction of a mixture. I think that the methods with consequentialists discover for gaining weight in the prior (before the treacherous turn) are mostly likely to be elegant (short description on UTM), and that is the consequentialists’ real competition; then [the probability the universe they live in produces them with their specific goals]or [the bits to directly specify a consequentialist deciding to to do this] set them back (in the MAP context).
I don’t see why their methods would be elegant. In particular, I don’t see why any of {the anthropic update, importance weighting, updating from the choice of universal prior} would have a simple form (simpler than the simplest physics that gives rise to life).
I don’t see how MAP helps things either—doesn’t the same argument suggest that for most of the possible physics, the simplest model will be a consequentialist? (Even more broadly, for the universal prior in general, isn’t MAP basically equivalent to a random sample from the prior, since some random model happens to be slightly more compressible?)
Yeah I think we have different intuitions here; are we at least within a few bits of log-odds disagreement? Even if not, I am not willing to stake anything on this intuition, so I’m not sure this is a hugely important disagreement for us to resolve.
I didn’t realize that you think that a single consequentialist would plausibly have the largest share of the posterior. I assumed your beliefs were in the neighborhood of:
(from your original post on this topic). In a Bayes mixture, I bet that a team of consequentialists that collectively amount to 1⁄10 or even 1⁄50 of the posterior could take over our world. In MAP, if you’re not first, you’re last, and more importantly, you can’t team up with other consequentialist-controlled world-models in the mixture.
Let’s say β=0.9, c=1/20.
Oh yeah—that’s good news.
Although I don’t really like to make anything that would fall apart if the world were deterministic. Relying on stochasticity feels wrong to me.