The “Biological Anchors” approach suggests we might be three to six decades away from having the training compute required for AGI.
Even within your line of thinking why is this bad? It’s quite possible to live until then, or do cryonics? Why is this option desperate?
A more generalizable line of thinking is: by default, I’m going to die of aging and so are all the people I love
Have you asked the people you love if they would prefer dying of aging, to some sort of AI-induced immortality? It is possible that they would go with immortality, but it’s not obvious. People, in general, do not fear death of aging. If it’s not obvious to you or you find it strange—you might need to talk to people more, and possibly do more therapy.
Might you have thanatofobia? easy to check—there are lots of tests online.
Do you have worrying and anxiety in addition to the depression?
Did you try CBT? CBT has great tools for dealing with intrusive thougths and irrational convictions.
And, finally, it’s wonderful that you are aware that you are depressed. But you should not take “reasons” for the illness, this “despair” for face value. Frankly, a lot of the stuff that you describe in this post is irrational. It does not make much sense. Some statements do not pass trivial fact-checking. You might review your conclusions, it might be even better if you do it not alone but with a friend or with a therapist.
Thanks for your concern. I don’t want my post to be alarming or extremely dark, but I did want to be totally frank about where my head’s at. Maybe someone will relate and feel seen. Or maybe someone will give me some really good advice.
The other stuff, in reverse order:
Frankly, a lot of the stuff that you describe in this post is irrational. It does not make much sense.
I’m genuinely curious what you mean, and why you think so. I’m open to disagreement and pushback; that’s part of why I published this post.
I’m especially curious about:
Some statements do not pass trivial fact-checking.
By all means, please fact-check away!
People, in general, do not fear death of aging. … Might you have thanatofobia? easy to check—there are lots of tests online.
Haha, I thought I was on LessWrong, where radical life extension is a common wish.
I don’t think I have thanatophobia. The first test that shows up on Google is kind of ridiculous. It almost asks, “Do you have thanatophobia?”
Have you asked the people you love if they would prefer dying of aging, to some sort of AI-induced immortality? It is possible that they would go with immortality, but it’s not obvious.
I could ask. My strong hunch is that, if given the choice between dying of aging or reversing their biological aging by, say, 30 years, they would choose the extra 30 years. And if given the choice again 30 years later, and 30 years after that, they would probably choose the extra 30 years again and again.
But you’re right. I don’t know for sure.
Even within your line of thinking why is this bad? It’s quite possible to live until then...
Yes, you’re right. Even six decades is not impossible for me (knock on wood). However, I also think of my older loved ones.
...or do cryonics?
If I knew cryonics had, say, a 99% chance of working, then I’d take great comfort in that. But, as it is, I’m not sure if assigning it a 1% chance of working is too optimistic. I just don’t know.
One hope I have is that newer techniques like helium persufflation — or whatever becomes the next, new and improved thing after that — will be figured out and adopted by Alcor, et al. by the time cryonics becomes my best option.
Nectome is also interesting, but I don’t know enough about biology to say more than, “Huh, seems interesting.”
Because 1) I want AGI to cure my depression, 2) I want AGI to cure aging before I or my loved ones die
You can try to look at this statements separately.
For 1):
Timelines and projections of depression treatments coming from medical/psychiatry research are much better than even optimistic timelines for (superintelligent) AGI.
Moreover, acceleration of scientific/medial/biochemical research due to weaker but advanced AI makes it even more likely that depression treatments would get better, way before AGI could cure anything.
I think that it is very likely that depression treatments can be significantly improved without waiting for AGI—with human science and technology.
I’m genuinely curious what you mean, and why you think so. I’m open to disagreement and pushback; that’s part of why I published this post.
By all means, please fact-check away!
Tesla “autopilot” is a fancy drive assist. It might turn around in future, but not with it’s current hardware. It’s not a good way to measure self-driving progress.
Waymo has all but solved self-driving, and has been continuously improving for all important metrics, exponentially for many of them.
I don’t think I have thanatophobia. The first test that shows up on Google is kind of ridiculous. It almost asks, “Do you have thanatophobia?”
Yea, I overestimated quality of online tests. I guess if you had phobia you would know from panic attacks or strong anxiety?
what about this description, of overthinking/rumination/obsession, does this seem relevant to how you feel?
First and foremost, if you do have suicidal ideation, please talk to someone: use a hotline https://988lifeline.org/talk-to-someone-now/, contact your doctor, consider hospitalization.
---
And regarding your post, some questions:
Even within your line of thinking why is this bad? It’s quite possible to live until then, or do cryonics? Why is this option desperate?
Have you asked the people you love if they would prefer dying of aging, to some sort of AI-induced immortality? It is possible that they would go with immortality, but it’s not obvious. People, in general, do not fear death of aging. If it’s not obvious to you or you find it strange—you might need to talk to people more, and possibly do more therapy.
Might you have thanatofobia? easy to check—there are lots of tests online.
Do you have worrying and anxiety in addition to the depression?
Did you try CBT? CBT has great tools for dealing with intrusive thougths and irrational convictions.
And, finally, it’s wonderful that you are aware that you are depressed. But you should not take “reasons” for the illness, this “despair” for face value. Frankly, a lot of the stuff that you describe in this post is irrational. It does not make much sense. Some statements do not pass trivial fact-checking. You might review your conclusions, it might be even better if you do it not alone but with a friend or with a therapist.
Thanks for your concern. I don’t want my post to be alarming or extremely dark, but I did want to be totally frank about where my head’s at. Maybe someone will relate and feel seen. Or maybe someone will give me some really good advice.
The other stuff, in reverse order:
I’m genuinely curious what you mean, and why you think so. I’m open to disagreement and pushback; that’s part of why I published this post.
I’m especially curious about:
By all means, please fact-check away!
Haha, I thought I was on LessWrong, where radical life extension is a common wish.
I don’t think I have thanatophobia. The first test that shows up on Google is kind of ridiculous. It almost asks, “Do you have thanatophobia?”
I could ask. My strong hunch is that, if given the choice between dying of aging or reversing their biological aging by, say, 30 years, they would choose the extra 30 years. And if given the choice again 30 years later, and 30 years after that, they would probably choose the extra 30 years again and again.
But you’re right. I don’t know for sure.
Yes, you’re right. Even six decades is not impossible for me (knock on wood). However, I also think of my older loved ones.
If I knew cryonics had, say, a 99% chance of working, then I’d take great comfort in that. But, as it is, I’m not sure if assigning it a 1% chance of working is too optimistic. I just don’t know.
One hope I have is that newer techniques like helium persufflation — or whatever becomes the next, new and improved thing after that — will be figured out and adopted by Alcor, et al. by the time cryonics becomes my best option.
Nectome is also interesting, but I don’t know enough about biology to say more than, “Huh, seems interesting.”
You can try to look at this statements separately.
For 1):
Timelines and projections of depression treatments coming from medical/psychiatry research are much better than even optimistic timelines for (superintelligent) AGI.
Moreover, acceleration of scientific/medial/biochemical research due to weaker but advanced AI makes it even more likely that depression treatments would get better, way before AGI could cure anything.
I think that it is very likely that depression treatments can be significantly improved without waiting for AGI—with human science and technology.
Tesla “autopilot” is a fancy drive assist. It might turn around in future, but not with it’s current hardware. It’s not a good way to measure self-driving progress.
Waymo has all but solved self-driving, and has been continuously improving for all important metrics, exponentially for many of them.
Yea, I overestimated quality of online tests. I guess if you had phobia you would know from panic attacks or strong anxiety?
what about this description, of overthinking/rumination/obsession, does this seem relevant to how you feel?
https://www.tranceformpsychology.com/problems/overthinking.html