So may I ask what part of his model allowed you to make what predictions regarding the Arab Spring?
The hopes of the chattering classes for Democracy in the Middle East bringing secularism and Western Liberal values to Middle Eastern countries as mostly empty self-delusion. Obviously other people got this right with different models, see Steve Sailer.
How the Western powers would disturb the process heading towards a stable order (Gaddafi and Syria crushing the rebels) create an unstable one that will be a headache (and thus jobs for the metaphorical Foggy Bottom) for years to come because they are unwilling to do what would be needed to clean it up (having a viable coalition of rebels crush all opposition) because that would violate progressive beliefs about how the world works.
The hopes of the chattering classes for Democracy in the Middle East bringing secularism and Western Liberal values to Middle Eastern countries as mostly empty self-delusion. Obviously other people got this right with different models, see Steve Sailer.
How the Western powers would disturb the process heading towards a stable order (Gaddafi and Syria crushing the rebels) create an unstable one that will be a headache (and thus jobs for the metaphorical Foggy Bottom) for years to come because they are unwilling to do what would be needed to clean it up (having a viable coalition of rebels crush all opposition) because that would violate progressive beliefs about how the world works.