In the context of the simulation, it may be impossible for the simulated beings to conduct any form of study of the laws of the parent universe. It definitely has been impossible for us so far, if we are in a simulation.
Of course, when I say ‘laws of physics’, I don’t mean ‘human study of laws of physics’. I mean the real laws that govern stuff. Even if a donut appears in front of my face, that just means that The Rules say not “physics”, but “what humans know is physics but what is actually arbitrary rules written by beings controlled by their own, this time really physics”.
Anyway, that’s just arguing definitions. The original point goes like that:
You: Why do people assign higher probability to ‘simulation’ than to ‘supernatural’?
Me: I don’t know about other people, but I can say why did I do that, and suppose that I am not the only one. My line of thinking at that moment (sorta):
When I am asked to assign a probability to ‘simulation’, I imagine a world when ‘simulation’ is true (our universe is run on a computer, and I can anticipate stuff like donuts appearing in front of my face or Morpheus texting me about the white rabbit), then I imagine a world where it is not true (our laws of physics are true laws of physics, I cannot ever anticipate any of violations of them), occam-conjure priors for both, see what fits my expierences better, yada yada, and decide on the balance of probability between those two.
When I am asked to assign a probability to ‘supernatural’, I try to imagine the world in which it is true, which means that there happens some stuff that True Rules of the Universe and Everything say can not happen. But if the stuff happens nevertheless, then they are not true. Smells like a logical contradiction, and I wholeheartedly assign it the same probability as I assign to 2+2=5, which, given the restrictions of the test, is equivalent to punching in 0.
So, even if the reasoning is not valid, or if author of the question had another thing completely in mind when he said ‘supernatural’, that’s the explanation why I, personally, assigned a higer probability to ‘simulation’ than to ‘supernatural’. Hope this can give you a hint why the average lesswronger did so.
Of course, when I say ‘laws of physics’, I don’t mean ‘human study of laws of physics’. I mean the real laws that govern stuff. Even if a donut appears in front of my face, that just means that The Rules say not “physics”, but “what humans know is physics but what is actually arbitrary rules written by beings controlled by their own, this time really physics”.
Anyway, that’s just arguing definitions. The original point goes like that:
You: Why do people assign higher probability to ‘simulation’ than to ‘supernatural’?
Me: I don’t know about other people, but I can say why did I do that, and suppose that I am not the only one. My line of thinking at that moment (sorta):
When I am asked to assign a probability to ‘simulation’, I imagine a world when ‘simulation’ is true (our universe is run on a computer, and I can anticipate stuff like donuts appearing in front of my face or Morpheus texting me about the white rabbit), then I imagine a world where it is not true (our laws of physics are true laws of physics, I cannot ever anticipate any of violations of them), occam-conjure priors for both, see what fits my expierences better, yada yada, and decide on the balance of probability between those two.
When I am asked to assign a probability to ‘supernatural’, I try to imagine the world in which it is true, which means that there happens some stuff that True Rules of the Universe and Everything say can not happen. But if the stuff happens nevertheless, then they are not true. Smells like a logical contradiction, and I wholeheartedly assign it the same probability as I assign to 2+2=5, which, given the restrictions of the test, is equivalent to punching in 0.
So, even if the reasoning is not valid, or if author of the question had another thing completely in mind when he said ‘supernatural’, that’s the explanation why I, personally, assigned a higer probability to ‘simulation’ than to ‘supernatural’. Hope this can give you a hint why the average lesswronger did so.