Lucius Bushnaq comments on 2013 Survey Results

[Lucius Bushnaq]

I remember my thought process going something like this:
P (Aliens in Milky way) ~0.75
P (Aliens) ~100
P (Answer pulled from anus on basis of half remembered internet facts is remotely correct) ~0,8

So:
P (Aliens) P (Anus) ~0,8
P (Milky aliens) P (Anus) ~0,6

[A1987dM]

It should have been P (Milky aliens) P (Anus) + P (!Milky aliens) P (!Anus) = 0.6 + 0.05.