Yes but as I said in another comment that requires special conditions, such as a previous revolution destabilising things so much that power is up for grabs, or some sway over the military. 1917 being in the middle of a very unpopular war probably played a huge role in creating the conditions for a relative minority to impose its will.
The unpopularity of the war in early 1917 is rather overstated. In fact; even after the fall of the Tsarist government, the war was so popular that before Lenin returned to Russia, Stalin felt it necessary to change the Bolshevik party line by endorsing Russia’s continued participation in the war.
I agree that the chaotic conditions in 1917 Russia were essential for a minority to seize power, but similarly chaotic conditions could come to exist in many Western countries as well, perhaps as the result of a world war or economic transformation driven by AI.
The question is how popular the war was with the soldiers, who had the weapons. The home front’s opinion gets relatively less important in the face of enough angry people with guns.
similarly chaotic conditions could come to exist in many Western countries as well, perhaps as the result of a world war or economic transformation driven by AI
Or climate change. True. But I honestly still expect right wing authoritarianism to emerge victorious from most of those scenarios. The leftist front just doesn’t have enough unity or enough of a project to turn even its worst impulses into actual policy. I think the only liberal-ish leaning regime I can imagine emerging is more of a moderate technocracy enforced by an alliance between politics and techno-capitalists bolstered in power by AI.
And of course, since we’re here, anyone who created an aligned ASI first would have a shot at shaping the world as they see fit, so that’s the ultimate pivot upon which even a very extreme minority might impose its views on everyone else. I wrote a whole post about this once. But those are very extreme scenarios (and I expect that if such an ASI is possible it’d just kill us, most likely).
Yes but as I said in another comment that requires special conditions, such as a previous revolution destabilising things so much that power is up for grabs, or some sway over the military. 1917 being in the middle of a very unpopular war probably played a huge role in creating the conditions for a relative minority to impose its will.
The unpopularity of the war in early 1917 is rather overstated. In fact; even after the fall of the Tsarist government, the war was so popular that before Lenin returned to Russia, Stalin felt it necessary to change the Bolshevik party line by endorsing Russia’s continued participation in the war.
I agree that the chaotic conditions in 1917 Russia were essential for a minority to seize power, but similarly chaotic conditions could come to exist in many Western countries as well, perhaps as the result of a world war or economic transformation driven by AI.
The question is how popular the war was with the soldiers, who had the weapons. The home front’s opinion gets relatively less important in the face of enough angry people with guns.
Or climate change. True. But I honestly still expect right wing authoritarianism to emerge victorious from most of those scenarios. The leftist front just doesn’t have enough unity or enough of a project to turn even its worst impulses into actual policy. I think the only liberal-ish leaning regime I can imagine emerging is more of a moderate technocracy enforced by an alliance between politics and techno-capitalists bolstered in power by AI.
And of course, since we’re here, anyone who created an aligned ASI first would have a shot at shaping the world as they see fit, so that’s the ultimate pivot upon which even a very extreme minority might impose its views on everyone else. I wrote a whole post about this once. But those are very extreme scenarios (and I expect that if such an ASI is possible it’d just kill us, most likely).