I think this is a bit overstated in terms of likelihood and severity. Political predictions deeply suffer from reference class problems—it’s unclear which past events or trends are indicators of future outcomes. Nobody votes in the same election twice. Not legally, at least.
I think this is a bit overstated in terms of likelihood and severity. Political predictions deeply suffer from reference class problems—it’s unclear which past events or trends are indicators of future outcomes. Nobody votes in the same election twice. Not legally, at least.