Disagree with this and might write up a more thorough response than the one I have in a bit, but for now, here are some manifold markets around this topic area:
I generally think manifold has a systematic bias to undercount this risk, as people who anticipate this risk are among the most likely to be uninterested in a prediction platform based around play money. that said, I think it’s undercounted by a small enough factor that these markets are mostly valid. I lose money betting my long term beliefs on manifold because I’m a bad short term bettor and don’t want to get really good; I suspect I’m not the only one. https://manifold.markets/L
Disagree with this and might write up a more thorough response than the one I have in a bit, but for now, here are some manifold markets around this topic area:
https://manifold.markets/group/weird-doomsday
I generally think manifold has a systematic bias to undercount this risk, as people who anticipate this risk are among the most likely to be uninterested in a prediction platform based around play money. that said, I think it’s undercounted by a small enough factor that these markets are mostly valid. I lose money betting my long term beliefs on manifold because I’m a bad short term bettor and don’t want to get really good; I suspect I’m not the only one. https://manifold.markets/L