I could be wrong here, but the stuff you mentioned appear either ephemeral, or too particular. The “last few years” of political correctness is hardly enough time to judge world-trends by, right? By contrast, the stuff I mentioned (end of slavery, explicit policies against racism and war) seem likely to stick and stay with us for decades, if not centuries.
It sounds like you think that something like another Communist Revolution or Cultural Revolution could happen (that emphasizes some random virtues at the expense of others), but the effect would be temporary and after it’s over, longer term trends will reassert themselves. Does that seem fair?
In the context of AI strategy though (specifically something like the Long Reflection), I would be worried that a world in the grips of another Cultural Revolution would be very tempted to (or impossible to refrain from) abandoning the plan to delay AGI and instead build and lock their values into a superintelligent AI ASAP, even if that involves more safety risk. Predictability of longer term moral trends (even if true) doesn’t seem to help with this concern.
It sounds like you think that something like another Communist Revolution or Cultural Revolution could happen (that emphasizes some random virtues at the expense of others), but the effect would be temporary and after it’s over, longer term trends will reassert themselves. Does that seem fair?
That’s pretty fair.
I think it’s likely that another cultural revolution could happen, and this could adversely affect the future if it happens simultaneously with a transition into an AI based economy. However, the deviations from long-term trends are very hard to predict, as you point out, and we should know about the specifics more as we get further along. In the absence of concrete details, I find it far more helpful to use information from long-term trends rather than worrying about specific scenarios.
I think it’s likely that another cultural revolution could happen, and this could adversely affect the future if it happens simultaneously with a transition into an AI based economy.
This seems to be ignoring the part of my comment at the top of this sub-thread, where I said “[...] has also made me more pessimistic about non-AGI or delayed-AGI approaches to a positive long term future (e.g., the Long Reflection).” In other words, I’m envisioning a long period of time in which humanity has the technical ability to create an AGI but is deliberately holding off to better figure out our values or otherwise perfect safety/alignment. I’m worried about something like the Cultural Revolution happening in this period, and you don’t seem to be engaging with that concern?
Ahh. To be honest, I read that, but then responded to something different. I assumed you were just expressing general pessimism, since there’s no guarantee that we would converge on good values upon a long reflection (and you recently viscerally realized that values are very arbitrary).
Now I see that your worry is more narrow, in that the cultural revolution might happen during this period, and would act unwisely to create the AGI during its wake. I guess this seems quite plausible, and is an important concern, though I personally am skeptical that anything like the long reflection will ever happen.
Ahh. To be honest, I read that, but then responded to something different. I assumed you were just expressing general pessimism, since there’s no guarantee that we would converge on good values upon a long reflection (and you recently viscerally realized that values are very arbitrary).
I guess I was also expressing a more general update towards more pessimism, where even if nothing happens during the Long Reflection that causes it to prematurely build an AGI, other new technologies that will be available/deployed during the Long Reflection could also invalidate the historical tendency for “Cultural Revolutions” to dissipate over time and for moral evolution to continue along longer-term trends.
though I personally am skeptical that anything like the long reflection will ever happen.
Sure, I’m skeptical of that too, but given my pessimism about more direct routes to building an aligned AGI, I thought it might be worth pushing for it anyway.
It sounds like you think that something like another Communist Revolution or Cultural Revolution could happen (that emphasizes some random virtues at the expense of others), but the effect would be temporary and after it’s over, longer term trends will reassert themselves. Does that seem fair?
In the context of AI strategy though (specifically something like the Long Reflection), I would be worried that a world in the grips of another Cultural Revolution would be very tempted to (or impossible to refrain from) abandoning the plan to delay AGI and instead build and lock their values into a superintelligent AI ASAP, even if that involves more safety risk. Predictability of longer term moral trends (even if true) doesn’t seem to help with this concern.
That’s pretty fair.
I think it’s likely that another cultural revolution could happen, and this could adversely affect the future if it happens simultaneously with a transition into an AI based economy. However, the deviations from long-term trends are very hard to predict, as you point out, and we should know about the specifics more as we get further along. In the absence of concrete details, I find it far more helpful to use information from long-term trends rather than worrying about specific scenarios.
This seems to be ignoring the part of my comment at the top of this sub-thread, where I said “[...] has also made me more pessimistic about non-AGI or delayed-AGI approaches to a positive long term future (e.g., the Long Reflection).” In other words, I’m envisioning a long period of time in which humanity has the technical ability to create an AGI but is deliberately holding off to better figure out our values or otherwise perfect safety/alignment. I’m worried about something like the Cultural Revolution happening in this period, and you don’t seem to be engaging with that concern?
Ahh. To be honest, I read that, but then responded to something different. I assumed you were just expressing general pessimism, since there’s no guarantee that we would converge on good values upon a long reflection (and you recently viscerally realized that values are very arbitrary).
Now I see that your worry is more narrow, in that the cultural revolution might happen during this period, and would act unwisely to create the AGI during its wake. I guess this seems quite plausible, and is an important concern, though I personally am skeptical that anything like the long reflection will ever happen.
I guess I was also expressing a more general update towards more pessimism, where even if nothing happens during the Long Reflection that causes it to prematurely build an AGI, other new technologies that will be available/deployed during the Long Reflection could also invalidate the historical tendency for “Cultural Revolutions” to dissipate over time and for moral evolution to continue along longer-term trends.
Sure, I’m skeptical of that too, but given my pessimism about more direct routes to building an aligned AGI, I thought it might be worth pushing for it anyway.