I think one of the stronger flaws in current HIV theory is the chimpanzee models—they have many HIV similar retroviruses (SIV’s), they are common in wild chimps, are all vertically transmitted, and don’t appear to be problematic for chimps. If HIV killed chimps outright, the mainstream theory would have some more ammo.
I think that, in general, viruses that jump species barriers are more lethal in their new hosts than their old ones. Selection pressure tends to make viruses that are transmitted from individual to individual less dangerous over time, not more, because a dead host can’t spread the virus. So the fact that chimps tolerate SIV better than humans tolerate HIV isn’t a strike against the “HIV is mutated SIV” theory.
Also, there exists a more direct counterexample: FIV, feline immunodeficiency virus, is an HIV-like virus that is commonly found in lions. It doesn’t harm lions very much, but it’s lethal to domestic cats, which haven’t co-evolved with the virus the way lions have. (Specifically, lions compensate for the loss of T-cells to the virus by producing them in much larger numbers than other animals do.)
Perhaps not all viruses that jump species barriers are more lethal, but we care most about the lethal ones for sure, and lethality or host damage is a side effect of high replication, so yes I agree with your analysis.
I also said:
I think it is plausible that this happened and HIV causes novel problems in humans, but it certainly has not been well demonstrated, mainly because HIV doesn’t cause specific symptoms and it is extremely difficult to properly dissociate other causitive factors.
I’m reading the OBrien Goddert response now that cites some animal studis showing how some animal HIV analogs do fulfill koch’s postulate now. I am reading into the sources, but I wasn’t aware overall that they had found animal HIV analogs that caused AIDS like symptoms. I’ll have to update towards the ‘HIV is more pathogenic’ stance if this all checks out.
I think that, in general, viruses that jump species barriers are more lethal in their new hosts than their old ones. Selection pressure tends to make viruses that are transmitted from individual to individual less dangerous over time, not more, because a dead host can’t spread the virus. So the fact that chimps tolerate SIV better than humans tolerate HIV isn’t a strike against the “HIV is mutated SIV” theory.
Also, there exists a more direct counterexample: FIV, feline immunodeficiency virus, is an HIV-like virus that is commonly found in lions. It doesn’t harm lions very much, but it’s lethal to domestic cats, which haven’t co-evolved with the virus the way lions have. (Specifically, lions compensate for the loss of T-cells to the virus by producing them in much larger numbers than other animals do.)
Perhaps not all viruses that jump species barriers are more lethal, but we care most about the lethal ones for sure, and lethality or host damage is a side effect of high replication, so yes I agree with your analysis.
I also said:
I’m reading the OBrien Goddert response now that cites some animal studis showing how some animal HIV analogs do fulfill koch’s postulate now. I am reading into the sources, but I wasn’t aware overall that they had found animal HIV analogs that caused AIDS like symptoms. I’ll have to update towards the ‘HIV is more pathogenic’ stance if this all checks out.