We are currently at ASL-2 in Anthropic’s RSP. Based on the categorization, ASL-3 is “low-level autonomous capabilities”. I think ASL-3 systems probably don’t meet the bar of “meaningfully in control of their own existence”, but they probably meet the thing I think is more likely:
I think it wouldn’t be crazy if there were AI agents doing stuff online by the end of 2024, e.g., running social media accounts, selling consulting services; I expect such agents would be largely human-facilitated like AutoGPT
I think it’s currently a good bet (>40%) that we will see ASL-3 systems in 2024.
I’m not sure how big of a jump if will be from that to “meaningfully in control of their own existence”. I would be surprised if it were a small jump, such that we saw AIs renting their own cloud compute in 2024, but this is quite plausible on my models.
I think the evidence indicates that this is a hard task, but not super hard. e.g., looking at ARC’s report on autonomous tasks, one model partially completes the task of setting up GPT-J via a cloud provider (with human help).
I’ll amend my position to just being “surprised” without the slightly, as I think this better captures my beliefs — thanks for the push to think about this more. Maybe I’m at 5-10%.
It may help to know how you’re operationalizing AIs that are ‘meaningfully aware of their own existence’.
We are currently at ASL-2 in Anthropic’s RSP. Based on the categorization, ASL-3 is “low-level autonomous capabilities”. I think ASL-3 systems probably don’t meet the bar of “meaningfully in control of their own existence”, but they probably meet the thing I think is more likely:
I think it’s currently a good bet (>40%) that we will see ASL-3 systems in 2024.
I’m not sure how big of a jump if will be from that to “meaningfully in control of their own existence”. I would be surprised if it were a small jump, such that we saw AIs renting their own cloud compute in 2024, but this is quite plausible on my models.
I think the evidence indicates that this is a hard task, but not super hard. e.g., looking at ARC’s report on autonomous tasks, one model partially completes the task of setting up GPT-J via a cloud provider (with human help).
I’ll amend my position to just being “surprised” without the slightly, as I think this better captures my beliefs — thanks for the push to think about this more. Maybe I’m at 5-10%.
shrug, I’m being vague