In my experience there are infohazard/attention hazards concerns. Public strategy has likely negative expected value—if it is good, it will run into infohazards. If it is bad, it will create confusion.
I would expect prudent funders will not want to create parallel public strategy discussion.
I am not sure why you believe good strategy research always has infohazards. That’s a very strong claim. Strategy research is broader than ‘how should we deal with other agents’. Do you think Drexler’s Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Systems or The Unilateralist’s Curse were negative expected value? Because I would classify them as public, good strategy research with a positive expected value.
Are there any specific types of infohazards you’re thinking of? (E.g. informing unaligned actors, getting media attention and negative public opinion)
Depends on what you mean by public. While I don’t think you can have good public research processes which would not run into infohazards, you can have nonpublic process which produces good public outcomes. I don’t think the examples count as something public—e.g. do you see any public discussion leading to CAIS?
FWIW
In my experience there are infohazard/attention hazards concerns. Public strategy has likely negative expected value—if it is good, it will run into infohazards. If it is bad, it will create confusion.
I would expect prudent funders will not want to create parallel public strategy discussion.
I am not sure why you believe good strategy research always has infohazards. That’s a very strong claim. Strategy research is broader than ‘how should we deal with other agents’. Do you think Drexler’s Reframing Superintelligence: Comprehensive AI Systems or The Unilateralist’s Curse were negative expected value? Because I would classify them as public, good strategy research with a positive expected value.
Are there any specific types of infohazards you’re thinking of? (E.g. informing unaligned actors, getting media attention and negative public opinion)
Depends on what you mean by public. While I don’t think you can have good public research processes which would not run into infohazards, you can have nonpublic process which produces good public outcomes. I don’t think the examples count as something public—e.g. do you see any public discussion leading to CAIS?