Rachel Aaron (author of the Eli Monpress series, sample of “The Legend of Eli Monpress” currently on my Kindle being read) is I think the most effusive praise I’ve gotten from a published author, though I’ve heard rumors of certain others speaking in the halls of SF conventions. But you’re probably thinking of the Nebula, which is voted on by members of the SFWA. The Hugo is a reader award, voted on by the attendees of Worldcon. Look at the review page of HPMOR if you’re questioning whether the readers have been sufficiently enthusiastic.
I’m honestly a bit nonplussed at the idea that reader reception of HPMOR has been insufficiently enthusiastic to try for a Hugo. It’s fairly routine for a review to say that HPMOR is the best thing they’ve ever read out of all of fiction. If that is insufficient enthusiasm to think, “Hm, I might as well try for Best Novel, or the Gryffindors will look at me funny for my sheer lack of courage”, I don’t know what level ought to be required.
OK, she’s apparently not self-published, so I’ve added two interviews with her to the article as references. EDIT: And would you believe it, I forgot Hanson is a Notable person and so his recommendation on Overcoming Bias also counts.
But you’re probably thinking of the Nebula, which is voted on by members of the SFWA. The Hugo is a reader award, voted on by the attendees of Worldcon.
I thought it was the other way around, but OK. That will help, but one wonders how much—the awards overlap a fair bit. (A quick count suggests 1⁄3 winners the same over the past 15ish years.)
I’m honestly a bit nonplussed at the idea that reader reception of HPMOR has been insufficiently enthusiastic to try for a Hugo.
The question is which Hugo.
It’s fairly routine for a [FF.net] review to say that HPMOR is the best thing they’ve ever read out of all of fiction...I don’t know what level ought to be required.
Gee, I wonder how that could possibly be less-impressive-than-it-looks evidence...
Yes. Can you name a single fanfic that has ever won either prize for best novel? I can’t. Keeping in mind that fanfics long predate the Internet, that many noted authors got started as fans or were published in fanzines (Charles Stross being the most recent example I can think of), etc. So Laplace’s law gives us a starting point of single percents, and it only gets worse if we take into account nominations as well...
What should the world look like if HPMOR does have a chance of winning Best Novel?
Well, see above. Acceptable substitutes would include reviews and praise by the sort of people whose reviews & praise predict other nominees or winners—Brin is a good start, but we’re talking novels that are discussed or reviewed in all the major SF organs and sell into the hundreds of thousands or millions, so the n should be into the dozens for starters.
My guess is there’d need to be more respect for fanfic among the older sf fans, but I could be wrong about that. I’m not the only person for whom HPMOR is the only fanfic I read. (I’ve read some other good fanfic, but I don’t get around to fanfic generally speaking.)
I think a sufficiently high proportion of likely voters are on line, but this is based on a feeling of plausibility rather than actual knowledge.
When you talk about which award you’re going for, is this just a matter of which award you encourage people to nominate it for?
In terms of prestige, I think you’d be much better off being nominated for Best Novel and losing than winning the Best Fan Writer award.
I find it hard to imagine you winning, but I also find it hard to imagine specific reasons that would make it extremely unlikely. It’s quite possible that I’m just engaging in availability bias (all the other winners have been conventionally published) rather than anything more solid.
The Hugo is a reader award, voted on by the attendees of Worldcon.
Ranked preference voting, though. I’d expect a significant numbers of voters to rank “no award” ahead of any fanfic just on general principles. If it was just a single round of single preference voting the odds would look much better.
Rachel Aaron (author of the Eli Monpress series, sample of “The Legend of Eli Monpress” currently on my Kindle being read) is I think the most effusive praise I’ve gotten from a published author, though I’ve heard rumors of certain others speaking in the halls of SF conventions. But you’re probably thinking of the Nebula, which is voted on by members of the SFWA. The Hugo is a reader award, voted on by the attendees of Worldcon. Look at the review page of HPMOR if you’re questioning whether the readers have been sufficiently enthusiastic.
I’m honestly a bit nonplussed at the idea that reader reception of HPMOR has been insufficiently enthusiastic to try for a Hugo. It’s fairly routine for a review to say that HPMOR is the best thing they’ve ever read out of all of fiction. If that is insufficient enthusiasm to think, “Hm, I might as well try for Best Novel, or the Gryffindors will look at me funny for my sheer lack of courage”, I don’t know what level ought to be required.
OK, she’s apparently not self-published, so I’ve added two interviews with her to the article as references. EDIT: And would you believe it, I forgot Hanson is a Notable person and so his recommendation on Overcoming Bias also counts.
I thought it was the other way around, but OK. That will help, but one wonders how much—the awards overlap a fair bit. (A quick count suggests 1⁄3 winners the same over the past 15ish years.)
The question is which Hugo.
Gee, I wonder how that could possibly be less-impressive-than-it-looks evidence...
Is the prior that low or something? What should the world look like if HPMOR does have a chance of winning Best Novel?
Yes. Can you name a single fanfic that has ever won either prize for best novel? I can’t. Keeping in mind that fanfics long predate the Internet, that many noted authors got started as fans or were published in fanzines (Charles Stross being the most recent example I can think of), etc. So Laplace’s law gives us a starting point of single percents, and it only gets worse if we take into account nominations as well...
Well, see above. Acceptable substitutes would include reviews and praise by the sort of people whose reviews & praise predict other nominees or winners—Brin is a good start, but we’re talking novels that are discussed or reviewed in all the major SF organs and sell into the hundreds of thousands or millions, so the n should be into the dozens for starters.
My guess is there’d need to be more respect for fanfic among the older sf fans, but I could be wrong about that. I’m not the only person for whom HPMOR is the only fanfic I read. (I’ve read some other good fanfic, but I don’t get around to fanfic generally speaking.)
I think a sufficiently high proportion of likely voters are on line, but this is based on a feeling of plausibility rather than actual knowledge.
When you talk about which award you’re going for, is this just a matter of which award you encourage people to nominate it for?
In terms of prestige, I think you’d be much better off being nominated for Best Novel and losing than winning the Best Fan Writer award.
I find it hard to imagine you winning, but I also find it hard to imagine specific reasons that would make it extremely unlikely. It’s quite possible that I’m just engaging in availability bias (all the other winners have been conventionally published) rather than anything more solid.
Ranked preference voting, though. I’d expect a significant numbers of voters to rank “no award” ahead of any fanfic just on general principles. If it was just a single round of single preference voting the odds would look much better.
Not only the attendees. People with supporting memberships can vote as well.